---
title: "Supermicro already filed its quarter: $18.5–19.5 billion. Arista's $3.3 billion guide is the line still open."
description: "Supermicro furnished a preliminary first-quarter range of $18.5–19.5 billion on 20 October, against a $14.5–15.5 billion guide, and changed its CFO six days earlier. Arista guided about $3.3 billion and carried $8.4 billion of remaining performance obligations at 30 June. Thirteen filed lines before tonight's prints — ranges, commitments, inventory, concentration, financing and controls — each with its accession."
canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/anet-smci-q3-2026-filed-lines-before-the-prints-2026-11-03
date: "2026-11-03"
last_updated: "2026-11-03"
author: "EvidInvest Team"
publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)"
tags: ["SMCI", "ANET", "Super Micro Computer", "Arista Networks", "AI infrastructure", "earnings preview", "8-K", "10-K", "10-Q", "SEC filings"]
---

# Supermicro already filed its quarter: $18.5–19.5 billion. Arista's $3.3 billion guide is the line still open.

- Published: 2026-11-03
- Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB)
- Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/anet-smci-q3-2026-filed-lines-before-the-prints-2026-11-03
- Research, not investment advice.

> Supermicro furnished a preliminary first-quarter range of $18.5–19.5 billion on 20 October, against a $14.5–15.5 billion guide, and changed its CFO six days earlier. Arista guided about $3.3 billion and carried $8.4 billion of remaining performance obligations at 30 June. Thirteen filed lines before tonight's prints — ranges, commitments, inventory, concentration, financing and controls — each with its accession.

*Every figure below was read from Super Micro Computer's and Arista Networks' own filings on
sec.gov and is cited with its accession. Guidance and preliminary figures are the companies' own,
furnished on Form 8-K, and are labelled as such. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no
share prices, because none of them is filed, and nothing from earnings calls, which are not filings
either. Sums, ratios and implied figures are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked
*(Ours.)* Research, not investment advice.*

Two AI-infrastructure suppliers report today, Arista after the close and Supermicro with a 5:00
p.m. ET call. Supermicro
**[$SMCI](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SMCI)** has already put its quarter on file: on 20 October it furnished a
preliminary range above its own guide. Arista **[ANET](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ANET)** has filed no report
since its second-quarter 10-Q; its number is still the August guide.

So the risk in tonight's Supermicro headline is reading it as news. The revenue range is two weeks
old. What the print can add is narrower: where inside $18.5–19.5 billion the quarter lands, and
what the balance sheet looked like while it did. If you want a forecast, wrong page.

We checked EDGAR at 04:31 UTC on 3 November. Supermicro's newest 8-Ks are the 20 October update, a CFO 8-K and a
board 8-K; Arista's newest filings are its 4 August results 8-K and 5 August 10-Q. After those, only ownership and insider forms.

## Report dates: one filed, one announced

Supermicro's 8-K of 20 October (**accession `0001375365-26-000025`**), Exhibit 99.1, schedules
the call "on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET". Arista's date is company-confirmed but not
on EDGAR: a 6 October press release on its website says it will report "after U.S. markets close on
Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026".

## Supermicro: seven lines

### 1. The quarter is already a range: $18.5–19.5 billion

From Exhibit 99.1 of `0001375365-26-000025`:

> Revenues for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 are estimated to be in the range of $18.5
> billion to $19.5 billion versus guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, primarily due to
> increased demand for AI platforms.

The guide it refers to is in the fourth-quarter release of 11 August (**`0001375365-26-000021`**):
"net sales in the range of $14.5 billion and $15.5 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year
2027". *(Ours: the bottom of the preliminary range is $3.0 billion above the top of the guide; the
midpoints differ by $4.0 billion, or 26.7%. Against fourth-quarter net sales of $11.1 billion, the
range is 67–76% higher.)*

The release says the figures are "based on preliminary results and management's estimates", that
the auditors have performed no procedures on them, and that actual results "may differ materially".

**Check:** reported net sales against $18.5–19.5 billion, and whether the release says anything
changed in closing.

### 2. Gross margin: 12.0–12.5%, against a guide that is not in the August filing

The same exhibit: "Gross margins are estimated to be in the range of 12.0% to 12.5%, versus
guidance of 10.4% to 10.8%, primarily due to customer and product mix." The August release's
business outlook gives net sales and earnings per share for the quarter, and no gross-margin range;
the 10.4–10.8% guide the October release refers to is not in it.

The August release reports fourth-quarter gross margin of 17.5% and fiscal 2026
gross margin of 10.8% (`0001375365-26-000021`); the 10-K (**`0001375365-26-000022`**) gives the
same 10.8% for the year, against 11.1% in fiscal 2025, citing "competitive pricing to gain
market share" and "change in product and customer mix".

**Check:** the reported gross margin against 12.0–12.5%, and whether the mix explanation repeats.

### 3. The full-year range now has a filed first quarter under it

The August release: "For fiscal year 2027, the Company expects net sales in the range of $65.0
billion to $72.0 billion." The October update does not restate it. *(Ours: $65.0–72.0 billion less
the $18.5–19.5 billion first quarter leaves $45.5–53.5 billion for the other three quarters, an
average of $15.2–17.8 billion a quarter, below the first-quarter range.)*

**Check:** whether the fiscal 2027 range is restated, raised or left as it stands.

### 4. Demand on file: $34.2 billion of purchase commitments and $12.9 billion of inventory

The 10-K does not quantify a backlog; the word does not appear in it. The August release quotes the
CEO on "more than $60 billion in new orders" and "record backlog entering fiscal 2027", with no
table behind either. What the 10-K sizes is the supply side, at 30 June:

| Line (10-K, `0001375365-26-000022`) | 30 June 2026 | 30 June 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Non-cancelable purchase commitments | $34.2 billion | — |
| Inventories | $12,895.9 million | $4,680.4 million |
| of which finished goods | $10,276.0 million | $3,465.4 million |
| Net cash from operating activities, fiscal year | $(6,809.9) million | $1,659.5 million |
| Remaining performance obligations | about $2,612.0 million | — |

The commitments run "primarily through the next 12 months". *(Ours: $34.2 billion is 88% of fiscal
2026 net sales of $39,063.1 million; inventory ended the year at 2.8 times its June 2025 level.)* The 10-K attributes the
operating cash outflow to "an increase in inventory purchases, accounts receivable from customers,
and increased operational spending".

On the customer side, the 10-K says Supermicro works from purchase orders "rather than long-term
purchase commitments", and that some customers "cancel or defer purchase orders on short notice
without incurring a significant penalty." The remaining performance obligations of $2,612.0 million, 60% due within 12 months, exclude
contracts of a year or less. *(Ours: they equal current deferred revenue of $1,578.0 million plus
non-current deferred revenue of $1,034.0 million.)* Of the year's deferred-revenue increase, $943.4
million was "non-refundable advance consideration" from customers.

**Check:** inventory and operating cash flow at 30 September, before revenue.

### 5. One customer was 28.1% of the year

From the 10-K: "For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, sales to one customer represented 28.1 % of
total net sales." In fiscal 2025, four customers were each above 10%. At 30 June, three customers accounted for 23.0%, 17.1% and 12.5% of accounts receivable of
$6,125.4 million. On the supply side, "One supplier accounted for 63.1 %" of total purchases. The
concentration note names neither. *(Ours: 28.1% of $39,063.1 million is about $11.0 billion.)*

**Check:** whether the 10-Q, when it comes, still shows one customer above 10%, and at what share.

### 6. Financing: $8.7 billion of debt, a mandatory convertible and an unused ATM

The 10-K gives "approximately $8.7 billion of consolidated indebtedness" at 30 June: $2.0 billion
drawn on the JP Morgan revolver, $1,763.5 million on the CTBC facilities, and convertible notes of
$1,725.0 million due 2029, $700.0 million due 2028 and $2.3 billion due 2030.

In June, Supermicro issued 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock with "an aggregate
liquidation preference of $3.75 billion", plus an over-allotment that added $551.6 million of net
proceeds. The mandatory conversion date "is expected
to occur on or about June 1, 2029." An at-the-market programme of up to $1.25 billion was set up on 11 June; "As of June 30,
2026, we had not sold any shares of common stock under the program."

**Check:** cash, bank borrowings and any ATM sales at 30 September. The 10-K says sales were
"expected to commence no earlier than the third calendar quarter of 2026".

### 7. A new CFO on 14 October, and one material weakness still open

The 8-K of 15 October (**`0001375365-26-000024`**): "the Board of Directors ... appointed Mark Long
as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective immediately, at which time David Weigand ceased
serving in that role." Mr. Long was Western Digital's CFO from 2016 to 2019. His offer letter
provides "an annual base salary of $725,000 and a sign-on bonus of $500,000", a guaranteed $500,000
annual cash bonus, and an expected 120,000 restricted stock units plus an option on 150,000 shares.

The 8-K gives no reason for the change and no separation terms for Mr. Weigand. The board 8-K of 8
October (**`0001375365-26-000023`**), on director Judy Lin's retirement, says her decision "was not
the result of any disagreement with the Company"; the CFO 8-K carries no such sentence.

The 10-K concluded that internal control over financial reporting "was not effective as of June 30,
2026", with one material weakness left, in information-technology general controls; three others
were remediated. Remediation is "subject to the completion of operating effectiveness testing during
fiscal year 2027". In Mr. Weigand's fiscal 2026 bonus table, the "Material Weakness Remediation"
measure scored 0%. Government investigations tied to the March 2026 export-control indictment of
three former associates "remain ongoing".

**Check:** who signs the 10-Q certifications, and whether the controls section says the weakness
is remediated.

## Arista: six lines

### 8. The guide: about $3.3 billion, and no gross-margin range

From the second-quarter release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 4 August (**`0001596532-26-000174`**):

| Q3 2026 (company guidance) | Range |
|---|---|
| Revenue | approximately $3.3 billion |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 48–49% |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $1.06–1.08 |

Second-quarter revenue was $3,035.7 million, with GAAP and non-GAAP operating margins of 45.4% and
49.9%. *(Ours: the guide is 8.7% above the second quarter.)* The outlook gives no gross-margin
figure.

**Check:** revenue against $3.3 billion, then non-GAAP operating margin against 48–49%.

### 9. Deferred revenue: $6.87 billion, and product deferrals behind it

The second-quarter 10-Q (**`0001596532-26-000175`**) says deferred revenue "is comprised mainly of
unearned revenue related to multi-year post-contract support ("PCS") contracts and product
deferrals related to contracts with acceptance clauses."

| Deferred revenue ($m) | 31 Dec 2025 | 31 Mar 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | 5,372.4 | 6,198.7 | 6,865.9 |
| Deferred cost of goods sold | 1,197.0 | 1,546.5 | 1,621.9 |

March figures: first-quarter 10-Q (**`0001596532-26-000078`**). The rise in deferred cost of
goods sold "was driven by a corresponding increase in deferred product revenue". *(Ours: deferred revenue rose $1,493.5 million in six months.)*

**Check:** the deferred-revenue balance at 30 September, and whether product deferrals were
released into revenue or kept growing.

### 10. Remaining performance obligations: $8.4 billion

The 10-Q: total revenue from contract liabilities, deferred revenue and other performance
obligations "expected to be recognized in future periods amounts to $8.4 billion as of June 30,
2026", with "Approximately 91 %" over the next two years. At 31 March it was $7.7 billion. Inside
the other performance obligations, "binding contractual agreements with certain customers that are
primarily related to future product shipments" were $875.1 million in June, against $968.4 million
in March.

**Check:** the 30 September total, and the binding product-shipment line.

### 11. Purchase commitments: $9.7 billion, more of it due inside a year

| Non-cancellable purchase commitments | 31 Mar 2026 (`0001596532-26-000078`) | 30 Jun 2026 (`0001596532-26-000175`) |
|---|---|---|
| Total | $8.9 billion | $9.7 billion |
| Expected within 12 months | $7.6 billion | $9.4 billion |
| Expected after 12 months | $1.3 billion | $0.3 billion |

Deposits to contract manufacturers "to secure our purchase commitments" were $124.4 million at 30
June, against $53.0 million at 31 December.

**Check:** the 30 September commitment and its 12-month portion.

### 12. Inventory: a quarter of it is with customers on evaluation

Total inventories were $2,535.3 million at 30 June, against $2,380.0 million at 31 March and
$2,247.1 million at 31 December. Finished goods include evaluation inventory of $616.0 million,
against $525.7 million in March and $403.7 million in December. *(Ours: evaluation units are 24.3%
of inventory.)* The first-quarter 10-Q ties evaluation inventory and product deferred revenue to "increased
customer trials and contracts with acceptance periods".

**Check:** evaluation inventory, and any write-down.

### 13. Two end customers, 26% and 16%, unnamed

The 10-Q: "Sales to one end customer represented 16%, 15%, and 21% of our total revenue, and sales
to the other end customer represented 26%, 20%, and 18% of our total revenue for the years ended
December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023". Neither 10-Q we read names them. Second-quarter gross margin fell
to 62.9% from 65.2% a year earlier, "primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to
large end customers who generally receive higher discounts."

**Check:** gross margin, and any change in the concentration wording.

## What to read first tonight

For Supermicro, not the revenue line, which is already a filed range: read inventory and
operating cash flow, then whether the $65–72 billion year moves. For Arista, revenue against $3.3
billion, then deferred revenue and the $8.4 billion of obligations.

Our [3 August preview](https://evidinvest.com/blog/aug4-2026-data-center-earnings-preview-amd-anet-wdc-gfs-smci-2026-08-03)
covered the previous round.

## Run it yourself

[/filings/SMCI](https://evidinvest.com/filings/SMCI) lists the 20 October preliminary update, the CFO 8-K and the 10-K;
[/filings/ANET](https://evidinvest.com/filings/ANET) lists Arista's 10-Qs and results 8-Ks.
[/financials/SMCI](https://evidinvest.com/financials/SMCI) holds the standardised statements, and
[/valuation/SMCI](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SMCI) and [/valuation/ANET](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ANET) let you run your own
valuation on filed numbers.

Then write down the lines you will hold each company to: $18.5–19.5 billion, 12.0–12.5% and $34.2
billion of commitments for Supermicro; $3.3 billion, $6.87 billion of deferred revenue and $9.7
billion of commitments for Arista. Our
[Thesis Monitor](https://evidinvest.com/thesis-monitor) reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of
them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the
[EvidInvest MCP server](https://evidinvest.com/developers). It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no
subscription.

One quarter is already filed as a range. Tonight's 8-K says where in it Supermicro landed.

*Sources. Super Micro Computer, Inc. Form 8-K of 20 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (preliminary Q1
FY2027 update): accession `0001375365-26-000025`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000025/smcifirstquarterfy2027busi.htm)).
Form 8-K of 15 October 2026 (CFO appointment): `0001375365-26-000024`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000024/smci-20261014.htm)).
Form 8-K of 8 October 2026 (board): `0001375365-26-000023`. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended
30 June 2026: `0001375365-26-000022`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000022/smci-20260630.htm)).
Form 8-K of 11 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1: `0001375365-26-000021`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536526000021/exhibit991_20260630.htm)).
Arista Networks, Inc. Form 8-K of 4 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1: `0001596532-26-000174`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596532/000159653226000174/ex991q226-earningsrelease.htm)).
Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: `0001596532-26-000175`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596532/000159653226000175/anet-20260630.htm)).
Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 March 2026: `0001596532-26-000078`
([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596532/000159653226000078/anet-20260331.htm)).
Arista's report date is from its press release of 6 October 2026 on arista.com, not an SEC filing.
EDGAR was checked at 04:31 UTC on 3 November 2026. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, share price, price
target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, ratios and implied figures are arithmetic on
those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.*

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