--- title: "SpaceX’s first public print has no precedent — but the S-1 already graded it: $18.67B revenue, an AI segment losing $6.4B, a $19.6B spectrum bet" description: "If you plan to trade SPCX’s maiden earnings Tuesday, the S-1 is the only scoreboard that exists: FY25 revenue $18.67B, Starlink $11.39B (+50%), AI deep in losses after the Feb 2 xAI merger, and a ~$19.6B EchoStar spectrum deal pending. GHM already filed record $532.6M backlog, ~85% Defense. Research, not tips." canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/aug4-2026-spacex-ghm-earnings-preview-2026-08-03 date: "2026-08-03" last_updated: "2026-08-03" author: "EvidInvest Team" publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)" tags: ["SPCX", "SpaceX", "GHM", "Graham", "Starlink", "space", "defense", "earnings preview", "SEC filings"] --- # SpaceX’s first public print has no precedent — but the S-1 already graded it: $18.67B revenue, an AI segment losing $6.4B, a $19.6B spectrum bet - Published: 2026-08-03 - Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB) - Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/aug4-2026-spacex-ghm-earnings-preview-2026-08-03 - Research, not investment advice. > If you plan to trade SPCX’s maiden earnings Tuesday, the S-1 is the only scoreboard that exists: FY25 revenue $18.67B, Starlink $11.39B (+50%), AI deep in losses after the Feb 2 xAI merger, and a ~$19.6B EchoStar spectrum deal pending. GHM already filed record $532.6M backlog, ~85% Defense. Research, not tips. Tuesday, **August 4**, SpaceX ([SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX)) prints its **first quarter as a public company** (~4:30 p.m. ET; call ~5:00 p.m. ET) — and here is the problem with grading a maiden print: there is no earnings history to anchor on, only the S-1. Everyone will react to whatever number tops the release; the S-1 already tells you which numbers matter and why the AI segment even exists. Graham Corporation ([GHM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GHM)) already filed full fiscal 2026 results on June 8 — vacuum, heat-transfer, and fluid systems into Defense, Space, and Energy. Read them as a stack: platform company on the call, supplier backlog already on EDGAR. This is research, not investment advice — no price calls here. Figures from SEC S-1 / Exhibit 99.1 filings. ## Who prints when | Ticker | Status | Last filed checkpoint | | --- | --- | --- | | **[SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX)** | **Aug 4 ~4:30 p.m. ET** (maiden public) | S-1 / prospectus financials (FY25 + Q1'26) | | **[GHM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GHM)** | **Already filed** Jun 8 | FY2026 (ended Mar 31) Ex 99.1 | ## SpaceX — S-1 baselines into the first public print From the IPO disclosure package (CIK [0001181412](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412&type=S-1); S-1 accession `0001628280-26-036936`; prospectus family including `0001628280-26-040364`): ### Consolidated | Line | FY2025 | Q1 2026 | | --- | ---: | ---: | | Revenue | **$18.674B** | **$4.694B** | | Loss from operations | **$(2.589)B** | **$(1.943)B** | | Adjusted EBITDA | **$6.584B** | **$1.127B** | ### Segments (the real scorecard) | Segment | FY2025 revenue | FY2025 Seg. Adj. EBITDA | Q1'26 revenue | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | **Connectivity (Starlink)** | **$11.387B** (+**49.8%** YoY) | **$7.168B** (+**86.2%**) | **$3.257B** | | Space (launch & related) | **$4.086B** | **$653M** | **$619M** | | AI | **$3.201B** | **$(1.237)B** | **$818M** | Connectivity also printed FY25 operating income of **$4.423B** (+120% YoY). AI printed FY25 operating loss of **$(6.355)B** — that is the dilution story the public market gets to re-price every quarter now. ### Two S-1 disclosures that frame the whole print Both from the S-1 subsequent-events disclosure (Item 15, accession `0001628280-26-036936`): - **Why there is an AI segment at all:** the **xAI merger was consummated on February 2, 2026**. The $(6.355)B FY25 AI operating loss is the acquired business the public company now carries — every quarter is a referendum on whether that loss curve bends. - **The spectrum bet:** the pending **EchoStar spectrum** transaction totals approximately **$19.6B** — roughly **$11.1B in equity** (52.4M Class A shares at **$212/share**) plus up to **$8.5B** of EchoStar debt payoff, expected to close around **November 2027**. That is committed capital on the balance sheet's future, disclosed before the first earnings call. **Aug 4 scorecard:** (1) Starlink revenue / ARPU / subscriber trajectory vs the S-1 run-rate, (2) Space segment cadence and Starship CapEx color, (3) whether AI segment losses are still expanding post-xAI, (4) consolidated Adj. EBITDA bridge vs the $6.58B FY25 bar, (5) free-cash-flow / CapEx disclosure quality on a live call — with the $19.6B EchoStar commitment as the funding backdrop. ## Graham — already filed (supplier checklist for the same tape) FY2026 Exhibit 99.1 filed Jun 8, 2026 (accession `0001104659-26-058914`, CIK [0000716314](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000716314)): | Line | Amount | | --- | ---: | | Q4 revenue | **$67.1M** (+**13%**) | | FY revenue | **$245.3M** (+**17%**) | | FY diluted EPS / adj. EPS | **$1.12** / **$1.40** (+13% adj.) | | FY Adjusted EBITDA | **$26.0M** (+**16%**) | | FY orders | **$359.4M** (record) | | Book-to-bill (FY) | **1.5x** | | Backlog (YE) | **$532.6M** (+**29%**) | | Backlog mix | Defense ~**85%** | | Backlog conversion guide | **~35–40%** in next 12 months | CEO commentary flagged Defense strength and **building Space momentum** as drivers of the record quarter. FY2027 guide frame in the release: Adjusted EBITDA **$35–40M**. Graham is **not** reporting Tuesday. It is the filed upstream checklist: if SpaceX talks constellation CapEx denser or defense launch work hotter, GHM’s $532.6M backlog — roughly 85% Defense — and 1.5x book-to-bill are the small-cap numbers that already showed demand arriving at the vacuum-and-thermal layer. ## How the two connect SpaceX is the vertically integrated launch + Starlink + AI-compute platform. Graham sells engineered systems into Defense / Space / Energy programs. Same thematic tape, different risk: [SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX) is first-public-print volatility against S-1 history; [GHM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GHM) is multi-year backlog conversion (mostly Defense) already on file. ## One scoreboard for Tuesday 1. **[SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX) Connectivity** — hold the Starlink growth engine near the S-1 pace. 2. **[SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX) AI losses** — stabilize or keep expanding, post the Feb 2 xAI close? 3. **[SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX) Space / Starship** — cadence and CapEx honesty on a live call, with ~$19.6B of EchoStar commitments in the background. 4. **Read [GHM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GHM) backlog as confirmed upstream demand** — not as a substitute print. Headlines will move the stock Tuesday night; the S-1 is what sizes the exposure. Live multiples: [SPCX](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/SPCX) · [GHM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/GHM). ## Primary sources SpaceX S-1 (CIK 0001181412): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/ (`0001628280-26-036936`); prospectus family incl. `0001628280-26-040364`. Graham FY2026 Ex 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/716314/000110465926058914/tm2617569d1_ex99-1.htm (`0001104659-26-058914`). **First step:** before the call, open the S-1 segment table and write down two numbers — Starlink’s $3.257B Q1 revenue and the AI segment’s FY25 $(6.355)B operating loss. Grade everything Tuesday against those two. Research, not investment advice. --- Cite the canonical URL above (https://evidinvest.com/blog/aug4-2026-spacex-ghm-earnings-preview-2026-08-03), not this Markdown file. 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