--- title: "JPMorgan raised its guide and cut its buybacks. Wells Fargo held. The nine bank lines, read back." description: "All six big banks have filed their third-quarter 8-Ks. JPMorgan moved its 2026 net interest income outlook to about $106.2 billion and cut net buybacks to $664 million; Wells Fargo held +/- $50 billion and added a fourth-quarter figure of about $13 billion. Reserve builds, card charge-offs, CET1 ratios and buybacks read back against our 12 October preview, every figure with its accession." canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/big-banks-q3-2026-read-back-guides-reserves-capital-2026-10-15 date: "2026-10-15" last_updated: "2026-10-15" author: "EvidInvest Team" publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)" tags: ["JPM", "WFC", "BAC", "C", "GS", "MS", "banks", "earnings results", "net interest income", "CET1", "8-K", "SEC filings"] --- # JPMorgan raised its guide and cut its buybacks. Wells Fargo held. The nine bank lines, read back. - Published: 2026-10-15 - Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB) - Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/big-banks-q3-2026-read-back-guides-reserves-capital-2026-10-15 - Research, not investment advice. > All six big banks have filed their third-quarter 8-Ks. JPMorgan moved its 2026 net interest income outlook to about $106.2 billion and cut net buybacks to $664 million; Wells Fargo held +/- $50 billion and added a fourth-quarter figure of about $13 billion. Reserve builds, card charge-offs, CET1 ratios and buybacks read back against our 12 October preview, every figure with its accession. *Every figure below was read from the six banks' third-quarter earnings exhibits, furnished on Form 8-K on 13 and 14 October 2026, or from the second-quarter filings cited with their accessions. Outlook figures are the companies' own and are labelled as company guidance. Third- quarter capital ratios are the banks' preliminary estimates; the 10-Qs can revise them, as they did for two of these banks in July. We show no analyst estimates and no consensus, because they are not filed, and nothing from the earnings calls, which are not filings either. Sums, ratios and changes the banks do not print are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked *(Ours.)* Research, not investment advice.* On Monday we listed [nine filed lines to read before the bank prints](https://evidinvest.com/blog/big-banks-q3-2026-nine-filed-lines-before-the-prints-2026-10-12). All six banks have now filed. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi and Goldman Sachs furnished their exhibits on 13 October; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on 14 October. This page answers the same nine lines from the 8-Ks, or says plainly that only the 10-Q can. Only two banks have an outlook table. JPMorgan's moved up on all three lines. Wells Fargo's stayed where it was and gained a fourth-quarter figure. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley again filed no full-year net interest income number in their releases or presentations. *(We searched each exhibit for one.)* If you want a call on bank stocks, still the wrong page. ## What filed, and when | | 8-K accession | Filed | |---|---|---| | JPMorgan | `0001628280-26-065582` (release); `0001628280-26-065616` (presentation) | 13 Oct | | Wells Fargo | `0000072971-26-000318` | 13 Oct | | Citi | `0001104659-26-115323` | 13 Oct | | Goldman Sachs | `0000886982-26-000529` | 13 Oct | | Bank of America | `0000070858-26-000481` | 14 Oct | | Morgan Stanley | `0000895421-26-000288` | 14 Oct | None of the six third-quarter 10-Qs is on EDGAR yet. That matters for lines 6 and 7. ## 1. JPMorgan's guide moved up on every line **Filed**, company guidance, presentation 8-K `0001628280-26-065616`, under the heading "4Q outlook (market dependent)": | | 3Q26 YTD | 4Q outlook | FY26 implied | July guide | |---|---|---|---|---| | Net interest income | $78.2bn | ~$28bn | ~$106.2bn | ~$105.5bn | | NII excluding Markets | $71.7bn | ~$25.5bn | ~$97.2bn | ~$96.5bn | | Adjusted expense | $81.1bn | ~$27.5bn | ~$108.6bn | ~$107.5bn | The July figures are from the second-quarter 10-Q (`0001628280-26-054343`). *(Ours: the three implied totals are the year-to-date figure plus the fourth-quarter outlook, and each adds up. Against July, net interest income is about $0.7 billion higher, the figure excluding Markets about $0.7 billion higher, and adjusted expense about $1.1 billion higher.)* The third quarter itself: net interest income of **$27.1 billion** on the managed basis, up 13% on the year, and $24.7 billion excluding Markets (`0001628280-26-065582`). Our preview worked out that the July guide needed about $27.3 billion a quarter in the second half. The third quarter came in a little under that, and the new fourth-quarter outlook of about $28 billion sits above it. The same slide also carries a line under "2027 central case (preliminary analysis)": net interest income excluding Markets of about **$107 billion**, with "growth driven by the impact of balance sheet growth and higher rates". ## 2. Wells Fargo held its guide and added a quarter **Filed**, company guidance, Exhibit 99.3 to `0000072971-26-000318`: "Expect 2026 net interest income (NII) to be +/- $50 billion, unchanged from prior guidance"; "Expect 4Q26 net interest income to be ~$13 billion"; "Expect 2026 noninterest expense to be ~$55.7 billion, unchanged from prior guidance." The July slide (`0000072971-26-000288`) also split the $50 billion into about $48 billion excluding Markets and about $2 billion of Markets net interest income. The October outlook slide does not repeat that split. Third-quarter net interest income was **$12,517 million**, against $12,317 million in the second quarter. *(Ours: $24,413 million for the first half, from the 10-Q `0000072971-26-000302`, plus $12,517 million is $36,930 million. Add the guided ~$13 billion and the year lands at about $49.9 billion, inside "+/- $50 billion".)* Our preview had the second half needing about $12.8 billion a quarter. The third quarter ran about $0.3 billion under that pace, and the fourth- quarter figure carries the rest. On expense, the third quarter was **$13,743 million**. *(Ours: with $14,330 million in the first quarter and $13,661 million in the second, the nine months total $41,734 million, which leaves about $14.0 billion for the fourth quarter to land on $55.7 billion.)* ## 3. This quarter's base has its own one-off items **Filed**, JPMorgan Exhibit 99.1: third-quarter net income of **$15.3 billion**, or $5.57 a share, and $15.8 billion, or $5.75, "excluding a significant item": "$658 million of net investment securities losses in Corporate", $498 million after tax. Reported net income was down 28% on the second quarter's $21.2 billion and up 6% on the third quarter of 2025. That 28% fall is the one our preview flagged. The second quarter carried about $5.6 billion of pre-tax gains that JPMorgan itself labelled significant (`0001628280-26-048078`). The fall against the second quarter says more about that base than about this quarter. Bank of America has a one-off of its own. **Filed**, `0000070858-26-000481`: net income of **$6.9 billion**, or $0.91 a share, includes "a non-tax-deductible regulatory settlement charge of $1.2 billion", recorded to "accrue for the civil money penalties resulting from the regulatory consent orders". Excluding it, the bank shows adjusted net income of $8.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.08. The charge sits in noninterest expense, which was $19.7 billion reported and $18.5 billion adjusted. ## 4. JPMorgan's card charge-offs dropped below the guide **Filed**, presentation 8-K: the Card Services net charge-off rate was **2.91%** in the third quarter, against 3.34% in the second and 3.15% a year earlier. The 2026 outlook line still reads "Card Services NCO rate ~3.2%". Our preview worked out that a year averaging about 3.2%, after a 3.40% first half (`0001628280-26-054343`), needed a second half near 3.0%. The third quarter came in under that. *(Ours, simple average with level balances: (2 × 3.40% + 2.91% + Q4) ÷ 4 = 3.2% gives a fourth quarter near 3.09%. Rates are weighted by loan balances, and Card Services average loans rose to $250.1 billion from $243.5 billion, so this is an approximation.)* For comparison, Bank of America's credit card charge-off rate was 3.22% in the third quarter. ## 5. Reserves: builds at three banks, a release at one **Filed**, third quarter against second: | | Provision | Net charge-offs | Reserve change | Second quarter | |---|---|---|---|---| | JPMorgan | $2,743m | $2.2bn | build $539m | build $149m | | Citi | $2,586m | $2,217m | build $369m | ACL build $102m | | Wells Fargo | $1,029m | $983m | build $46m | build $31m | | Bank of America | $1,269m | $1,349m | release $80m | release $46m | | Goldman Sachs | $368m | n/a | n/a | provision $102m | | Morgan Stanley | $148m | n/a | n/a | provision $98m | Sources: the six third-quarter 8-Ks above; JPMorgan's second-quarter build is from the 10-Q `0001628280-26-054343`; Goldman's and Morgan Stanley's second-quarter provisions from their July 8-Ks (`0000886982-26-000294`, `0000895421-26-000207`). Citi's $369 million is its total net reserve build, which includes $333 million of allowance build and $36 million of other provisions. The reasons, in the banks' words: - JPMorgan: "The net reserve build was $539 million, primarily in Wholesale." The commercial and investment bank built $452 million of it. - Citi: a net reserve build "driven by changes in the macroeconomic outlook and portfolio growth". - Wells Fargo: "a higher allowance for commercial and industrial loans and auto loans driven by higher loan balances, partially offset by a lower allowance for commercial real estate loans". - Goldman Sachs: a provision that "primarily reflected impairments related to wholesale loans". - Morgan Stanley: "primarily driven by growth in our corporate and secured lending portfolios", plus "charge-offs of $105 million related to certain corporate and commercial real estate loans which had been largely provisioned for in prior quarters". *(Ours.)* JPMorgan's build is about 3.6 times its second-quarter figure ($539m ÷ $149m), and Citi's allowance build about 3.3 times ($333m ÷ $102m). Goldman's provision is about 3.6 times ($368m ÷ $102m). Of the six, Citi is the only one whose filed reason names the macroeconomic outlook. Of the four that split out a reserve change, Bank of America is the only one that released. ## 6. The unemployment rate inside the reserves: waits for the 10-Q None of the six 8-Ks prints a new macroeconomic scenario table. JPMorgan's 4.2% for the fourth quarter of 2026, and Citi's 4.3% eight-quarter average, both from the second-quarter 10-Qs, are still the latest filed assumptions. Citi's sentence above, "changes in the macroeconomic outlook", is the only filed hint that one of those tables moved. The 10-Qs will show by how much. ## 7. Lending to nonbank financial firms: waits for the 10-Q The industry tables behind this line (Wells Fargo's "financials except banks" at $208,838 million, JPMorgan's asset managers at $176,789 million, Bank of America's asset managers and funds at $158,972 million utilised, all at 30 June) are 10-Q tables. None of the 8-Ks updates them. Bank of America's forward-looking statements in this 8-K again list "a deterioration in private credit markets" among the risks. ## 8. Capital ratios: four lower, two flat; buybacks fell at three banks **Filed**, Standardized CET1 ratio, third quarter (preliminary) against second: | | CET1, 3Q26 | CET1, 2Q26 | Buybacks, 3Q26 | Buybacks, 2Q26 | |---|---|---|---|---| | JPMorgan | 13.9% | 14.2% | $664m net | $6.2bn net | | Bank of America | 10.9% | 11.2% | $6.0bn | $6.0bn | | Citi | 12.8% | 12.8% | $4.1bn incl. dividends | ~$5.0bn incl. dividends | | Wells Fargo | 10.0% | 10.3% | $2.5bn | $3.0bn | | Goldman Sachs | 12.4% | 12.9% | $3.00bn | $4.00bn | | Morgan Stanley | 14.9% | 14.9% | $1.5bn | $1.5bn | Second-quarter buybacks are from the July 8-Ks; JPMorgan's and Morgan Stanley's second-quarter CET1 ratios are the 10-Q figures. The largest change is JPMorgan's. *(Ours: $664 million against $6.2 billion is a fall of about 89%.)* The release gives the reason in Jamie Dimon's words: "In line with our hierarchy, we reduced share repurchases this quarter. We believe we can deploy this capital over time at very attractive returns for our shareholders." Net payout over the last twelve months fell to 61%, from 73% in July (`0001628280-26-048078`). The other filed reasons for the ratios: - Wells Fargo: "A decrease in accumulated other comprehensive income driven by the impact of higher interest rates reduced the CET1 ratio 38 bps from 2Q26." It also raised the quarterly dividend to $0.50 a share from $0.45. - Goldman Sachs: the Standardized ratio fell, "primarily reflecting an increase in market and credit RWAs". It returned $4.49 billion, of which $3.00 billion in buybacks and $1.49 billion in dividends. - Bank of America: CET1 capital fell $3.2 billion from the second quarter; the ratio was down 37 basis points. It returned $8.3 billion: $6.0 billion of buybacks and $2.2 billion of dividends. - Citi: the ratio was unchanged, and the payout ratio was **85%**, against 92% in July. *(Ours.)* JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs printed lower Standardized CET1 ratios than in June; Citi and Morgan Stanley printed the same. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley kept buybacks level, Citi's capital return was lower, and JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs cut theirs. ## 9. What the 10-Qs have to answer 1. **The outlook**: answered. JPMorgan up on three lines, Wells Fargo held, the other four have none. 2. **The allowance**: answered from the 8-Ks. Follow JPMorgan's and Citi's builds into the 10-Q, which will say which scenario weights changed. 3. **CET1 and buybacks**: answered, preliminary. In July two of the six moved by 0.1 point in the 10-Q. 4. **The macro table** (line 6) and **the nonbank-financials tables** (line 7): open until the third-quarter 10-Qs are filed. ## Run it yourself Start with line 2 again, because it is still one sum. Open [/filings/WFC](https://evidinvest.com/filings/WFC), add the third quarter's $12,517 million to the first half, then add the guided ~$13 billion. Do the same for JPMorgan at [/filings/JPM](https://evidinvest.com/filings/JPM) with the year-to-date column of the outlook slide. [/financials/JPM](https://evidinvest.com/financials/JPM) and [/earnings/JPM](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/JPM) carry the quarterly statements, and the other five are at the same paths: [/earnings/WFC](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/WFC), [/earnings/BAC](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/BAC), [/earnings/C](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/C), [/earnings/GS](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/GS), [/earnings/MS](https://evidinvest.com/earnings/MS). [/valuation/JPM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/JPM) lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. Then write your expectations down before the 10-Qs. [Thesis Monitor](https://evidinvest.com/thesis-monitor) reads each new filing against them: the ~$106.2 billion guide, the 2.91% card rate, JPMorgan's $539 million build, Wells Fargo's 10.0%, the $208.8 billion of loans to nonbank financials. It tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the [EvidInvest MCP server](https://evidinvest.com/developers). It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription. Two banks filed a number to be measured against, and both have now been measured. The other four still have none. *Sources. JPMorgan Chase Q3 2026 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: `0001628280-26-065582` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026065582/a3q26erfexhibit991narrative.htm)); presentation 8-K, Exhibit 99: `0001628280-26-065616` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000162828026065616/a3q26_earningsxpresentat.htm)). Wells Fargo Q3 Form 8-K, Exhibits 99.1 and 99.3: `0000072971-26-000318` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72971/000007297126000318/ex993-wellsfargo3q26pres.htm)). Bank of America Q3 Form 8-K, Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2: `0000070858-26-000481` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000007085826000481/bac09302026ex991.htm)). Citigroup Q3 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: `0001104659-26-115323` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831001/000110465926115323/c-ex99d1.htm)). Goldman Sachs Q3 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2: `0000886982-26-000529` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886982/000088698226000529/a3q26gsearningsresultspr.htm)). Morgan Stanley Q3 Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: `0000895421-26-000288` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000288/a3q26msearningsrelease.htm)). Second-quarter filings: JPMorgan 8-K `0001628280-26-048078` and 10-Q `0001628280-26-054343`; Wells Fargo 8-K `0000072971-26-000288` and 10-Q `0000072971-26-000302`; Bank of America 8-K `0000070858-26-000353` and 10-Q `0000070858-26-000394`; Citigroup 8-K `0001104659-26-083383` and 10-Q `0000831001-26-000045`; Goldman Sachs 8-K `0000886982-26-000294`; Morgan Stanley 8-K `0000895421-26-000207` and 10-Q `0000895421-26-000212`. Third-quarter capital ratios are the banks' preliminary estimates. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, ratios, multiples and changes are arithmetic on the filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.* --- Cite the canonical URL above (https://evidinvest.com/blog/big-banks-q3-2026-read-back-guides-reserves-capital-2026-10-15), not this Markdown file. Research, not investment advice. ## Sitemap All posts in Markdown: https://evidinvest.com/blog/index.md · feeds: https://evidinvest.com/blog/rss.xml and https://evidinvest.com/blog/feed.json · the [index for language models](https://evidinvest.com/llms.txt) · the full [sitemap](https://evidinvest.com/sitemap.md).