--- title: "NVIDIA reports Wednesday. The real event is an exhibit, not a number." description: "Five things to read in NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 filing: the $105B guaranty's fine print goes public for the first time, customer concentration, the 42%→22% geography flip, a doubling investment book, and an $81.6B base. From the filings, not the stream." canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-q2-fy27-earnings-preview-what-the-filing-shows-2026-08-24 date: "2026-08-24" last_updated: "2026-08-24" author: "EvidInvest Team" publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)" tags: ["NVDA", "NVIDIA", "earnings", "OpenAI", "SEC filings"] --- # NVIDIA reports Wednesday. The real event is an exhibit, not a number. - Published: 2026-08-24 - Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB) - Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-q2-fy27-earnings-preview-what-the-filing-shows-2026-08-24 - Research, not investment advice. > Five things to read in NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 filing: the $105B guaranty's fine print goes public for the first time, customer concentration, the 42%→22% geography flip, a doubling investment book, and an $81.6B base. From the filings, not the stream. *Figures trace to NVIDIA's Q1 FY27 10-Q (accession `0001045810-26-000052`, quarter ended 2026-04-26, filed 2026-05-20) and the August 17 8-K (accession `0001045810-26-000069`). We do not quote street consensus — only what is filed. Research, not investment advice.* [NVIDIA](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/NVDA) (**[$NVDA](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/NVDA)**) reports fiscal Q2 2027 on Wednesday, August 26, after the close. The stream will watch one revenue number. The filing that lands with it contains five things that matter more. ## 1. The $105B fine print goes public The August 17 8-K disclosed residual-value guaranties capped at **$105 billion** backing OpenAI's leases at the Portsmouth campus — and stated that the **form of the agreements files as an exhibit to this 10-Q**. That means Wednesday is the first time anyone outside the deal sees: - the **guaranteed minimum value** per lease — the number the $105B cap protects, which the 8-K deliberately did not disclose; - how the cap is **allocated** across leases; - the **credit-rating test** that releases NVIDIA from the obligation. We wrote up [the 8-K itself](https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-openai-residual-value-guaranty-105b-2026-08-18) and, this weekend, [the industry-wide architecture it belongs to](https://evidinvest.com/blog/hyperscaler-shadow-debt-spv-map-2026-08-22) — the same residual-value-guarantee instrument Meta uses to keep $27B off its balance sheet. Wednesday, NVIDIA's version gets its fine print. ## 2. Concentration: who is the revenue? Last quarter, **two direct customers were 16% and 14% of total revenue**. In the year-ago quarter it was 23% and 16%. The 10-Q also carried this sentence, easy to miss: *"We estimate that one AI research and deployment company contributed to a meaningful amount of our revenue by purchasing cloud services from our customers."* The filing does not name the company. Watch whether that language sharpens, and whether the customer letters (A, B…) grow or shrink as Blackwell ships broaden. ## 3. The quiet geography flip ![Revenue from outside the US fell from 42% to 22%](https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-geo-flip.png) A year ago, 42% of quarterly revenue came from customers headquartered outside the United States. Last quarter: **22%**. The AI buildout has concentrated NVIDIA's revenue into a handful of US hyperscalers and AI labs — the same names, as it happens, in our shadow-debt map. Wednesday shows whether that concentration deepened. ## 4. The balance sheet is becoming a portfolio Between January and April, NVIDIA's **non-marketable securities jumped from $22.3 billion to $43.4 billion** and marketable equity securities from $12.9 billion to $30.2 billion — the vendor is becoming one of the largest investors in its own customer base. Add the $105B guaranty and the announced compute-financing platform, and the income statement is only half the NVIDIA story now. Watch both investment lines, and the supply/purchase-commitment note beneath them. ## 5. The base it prints against ![Quarterly revenue and gross margin](https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-base-q2fy27.png) The filed trajectory: $39.3B → $44.1B → $46.7B → $57.0B → $68.1B → **$81.6B** over six quarters, with gross margin at **74.9%** last quarter (the 61% dip a year ago was the $4.5B H20 charge, not operations). Net income last quarter was $58.3B — of which $15.9B was *other income*, largely those investment marks: worth separating when Wednesday's number lands. ## Where we stand Our seven-method, filed-fundamentals fair-value range for NVDA sits well below the market price — the top of the range near $132 against a $215 market. That is not a call on Wednesday; it is a measure of how much future growth is already paid for. The market is making a growth bet knowingly. The filing on Wednesday — the exhibit, the concentration letters, the geography line — is where you check whether the bet's assumptions are still being confirmed by what gets filed rather than what gets said. We'll read the exhibit Wednesday night. [The valuation model](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/NVDA) updates as the numbers land. *Sources: 10-Q `0001045810-26-000052` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000052/nvda-20260426.htm)) · 8-K `0001045810-26-000069` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000069/nvda-20260817.htm)). Research, not investment advice. Not a price call.* --- Cite the canonical URL above (https://evidinvest.com/blog/nvda-q2-fy27-earnings-preview-what-the-filing-shows-2026-08-24), not this Markdown file. Research, not investment advice. ## Sitemap All posts in Markdown: https://evidinvest.com/blog/index.md · feeds: https://evidinvest.com/blog/rss.xml and https://evidinvest.com/blog/feed.json · the [index for language models](https://evidinvest.com/llms.txt) · the full [sitemap](https://evidinvest.com/sitemap.md).