--- title: "Oracle's RPO grew 363%. The 12-month share went 10% to 12%." description: "Before Oracle's Q1 FY2027 print, the FY2026 10-K already fixes RPO at $638 billion, capex at $55.7 billion, free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion." canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/orcl-q1-fy27-pre-earnings-what-the-10k-already-says-2026-09-08 date: "2026-09-08" last_updated: "2026-09-08" author: "EvidInvest Team" publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)" tags: ["ORCL", "Oracle", "RPO", "capex", "cloud infrastructure", "10-K", "8-K", "SEC filings"] --- # Oracle's RPO grew 363%. The 12-month share went 10% to 12%. - Published: 2026-09-08 - Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB) - Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/orcl-q1-fy27-pre-earnings-what-the-10k-already-says-2026-09-08 - Research, not investment advice. > Before Oracle's Q1 FY2027 print, the FY2026 10-K already fixes RPO at $638 billion, capex at $55.7 billion, free cash flow at negative $23.7 billion. *Figures below were read from Oracle's Form 10-K filed 22 June 2026 (accession `0001193125-26-277521`, fiscal year ended 31 May 2026), the Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 furnished 10 June 2026 (accession `0001193125-26-265848`), and the three fiscal 2026 Form 10-Qs (accessions `0001193125-25-200095`, `0001193125-25-315925`, and `0001193125-26-101045`). Every number was re-read from the primary EDGAR document. Research, not investment advice.* Oracle **[$ORCL](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/ORCL)** reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on 10 September. Going into the print, the ticker is one of the loudest on X, and almost every take is a forecast. This page is not one. Nothing below predicts the quarter, and there is no price call here — we never make those. Most of what people will argue about on 10 September is already filed, in a 10-K published in June. If you want a target, wrong page. If you want the four lines that will either hold or break in the new 10-Q, read on. ## What July left open The [July note](https://evidinvest.com/blog/orcl-down-two-thirds-order-book-up-363-percent-2026-07-26) argued that the market was repricing how Oracle's buildout is funded, not whether AI demand exists, and closed by asking readers to watch "the quarterly RPO-to-revenue conversion rate." That was left open, because the only conversion evidence quoted anywhere was a single year-end percentage. It is no longer a single percentage. Oracle discloses that near-term share every quarter, in Note 1 of each 10-Q and the 10-K. Put the four fiscal 2026 disclosures side by side and the question has a shape. ## The share that already moved RPO is contracted revenue Oracle has not delivered yet, and every fiscal 2026 filing splits the balance into four buckets: the next twelve months, months 13–36, months 37–60, the remainder. - 31 August 2025 (accession `0001193125-25-200095`): RPO **$455.3 billion**; approximately **10%** in the next twelve months, 25% in months 13–36, 34% in months 37–60. - 30 November 2025 (accession `0001193125-25-315925`): RPO **$523.3 billion**; approximately **10%**, 30%, 35%. - 28 February 2026 (accession `0001193125-26-101045`): RPO **$552.6 billion**; approximately **12%**, 31%, 35%. - 31 May 2026 (accession `0001193125-26-277521`): RPO **$638 billion**; approximately **12%**, 34%, 34%. Two things happened at once, and the headline only carries the first. Total RPO rose 40% across those three quarters, and 363% against the $138 billion reported a year earlier. The near-twelve-month share went from 10% to 12% — a change most summaries round away. The dollars are the part worth the arithmetic. Ten percent of $455.3 billion is about $46 billion; twelve percent of $638 billion is about $77 billion. That is the filing's own two numbers multiplied together, a product Oracle does not print, and it says the near-term slice grew faster than the balance it sits in. The months 13–36 band moved further still, 25% to 34% — roughly $114 billion to $217 billion — while the "remainder thereafter" tail shrank from 31% to 20%. The order book did not only get bigger. Its weight moved forward, out of the tail and into years two and three. "Booked is not billed" is true. It is also not the whole disclosure. ## The funding side is now filed, not planned July described the funding model from a furnished press release. The 10-K audits it. Cash used for capital expenditures was **$55,663 million** in fiscal 2026 against **$21,215 million** in fiscal 2025, up 162%, "primarily due to the expansion of our data centers" — a trend the 10-K expects to continue in fiscal 2027 and the following years. The ramp is in the 10-Qs, stated cumulatively: $8.5 billion through Q1, $20.5 billion through the first half, $39.2 billion through nine months, $55.7 billion for the year. The implied fourth quarter is about $16.5 billion. Operating cash flow was **$31,977 million**, up 54%. Free cash flow, in Oracle's own non-GAAP table, was **negative $23,686 million** against negative $394 million a year earlier — negative 139% of net income, versus negative 3%. Net income was $17,087 million. Free cash flow is negative, and the 10-K prints it that way. Total notes payable and other borrowings were **$129,541 million** at 31 May 2026 versus **$92,568 million** a year earlier — Item 1A calls it an aggregate of $129.5 billion maturing between calendar 2026 and calendar 2066. Interest expense was **$4,599 million**, up 29% from $3,578 million, which the filing attributes to higher average borrowings after $43.0 billion of senior notes in fiscal 2026 and $14.0 billion in fiscal 2025. Oracle had sold nothing under its $20 billion at-the-market equity program as of 31 May 2026. ## What sits off the balance sheet Note 9 discloses **$260 billion of additional lease commitments**, substantially all data-center arrangements, generally expected to commence between the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029, for terms of fifteen to nineteen years, "not reflected on our consolidated balance sheet." Those include one lease where Oracle has guaranteed up to $3.3 billion of the lessor's borrowing, maturing September 2026. Unconditional purchase and certain other obligations — primarily data-center power arrangements — totalled **$13,309 million**, of which $1,841 million falls in fiscal 2027. And as a subsequent event, after 31 May 2026 Oracle entered into an additional **$19 billion** of unconditional purchase commitments for cloud infrastructure assets, commencing in fiscal 2027 with a five-year term. ## Concentration: two sentences in the same 10-K Both are in the FY2026 10-K, and they answer different questions. Note 1: "No single customer accounted for 10% or more of our total revenues in fiscal 2026, 2025 or 2024." Same note: Oracle enters into "certain large, long-term customer cloud arrangements that require us to make significant infrastructure investments," and the returns on those investments depend on "the ability of our key customers to meet their contractual obligations." Item 1A goes further: "In certain OCI offerings, we are more concentrated among a number of large customers, which could increase these risks," and if Oracle overestimates demand or a key customer cannot pay, it "could be locked into multi-year commitments for excess data center space and related capital expenditures, as well as associated financings, without receiving corresponding revenue." The same item notes that the terms, renewal options and pricing adjustments in the long-term data-center leases typically do not align with the duration and pricing of customer contracts. Concentration language, not a named customer. ## The guidance is furnished, not filed The guidance comes from Exhibit 99.1 to the 10 June 8-K (accession `0001193125-26-265848`), furnished by management — not audited, not a 10-Q. Q1 FY2027: total revenues expected to grow 27% to 29% in both constant currency and USD; total cloud revenue up 58% to 64% in USD; non-GAAP EPS of $1.72 to $1.76. The comparison base is in the Q1 FY2026 10-Q: total revenues of **$14,926 million** for the quarter ended 31 August 2025. Full-year FY2027: $90 billion of revenue confirmed, non-GAAP EPS raised to $8.05. On mix, the audited 10-K adds the ratio worth carrying: cloud infrastructure revenue of **$18,101 million** against **$10,234 million**, up 77% (75% in constant currency), with cloud applications at $15,888 million, up 11%. Cloud infrastructure was **53%** of total cloud revenues in fiscal 2026, versus 42% and 35% in the two prior years, and the 10-K attributes 84% of constant-currency cloud growth to infrastructure. ## What to check on 10 September Not whether the print "beat." Four lines, all of which exist in a 10-Q: 1. **Note 1, RPO.** The balance and the four bucket percentages. The near-twelve-month share has read 10, 10, 12, 12. A fifth reading turns two prints into a trend. 2. **MD&A, capital expenditures.** Cash used for capex in the quarter, against $8.5 billion a year earlier and $55.7 billion for fiscal 2026. 3. **The free-cash-flow table.** Operating cash flow less capex, on Oracle's own trailing basis, against negative $23.7 billion. 4. **Note 9, commitments.** Whether the $260 billion of not-yet-commenced leases and the $19 billion purchase commitment move, and whether any of it has commenced onto the balance sheet. Park it as a [Thesis Monitor](https://evidinvest.com/monitor) check: RPO $638 billion with approximately 12% expected inside twelve months, against $55.7 billion of trailing capex and $129.5 billion of debt. Then read the filing, not the thread. *Oracle FY2026 10-K: accession `0001193125-26-277521` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm)). Q4 FY2026 Exhibit 99.1, furnished: accession `0001193125-26-265848` ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526265848/orcl-ex99_1.htm)). Q1 FY2026 10-Q: accession `0001193125-25-200095`. Q2 FY2026 10-Q: accession `0001193125-25-315925`. Q3 FY2026 10-Q: accession `0001193125-26-101045`. Dollar products and quarterly capex steps noted above are arithmetic on those filed figures; Oracle does not print them. Research, not investment advice.* --- Cite the canonical URL above (https://evidinvest.com/blog/orcl-q1-fy27-pre-earnings-what-the-10k-already-says-2026-09-08), not this Markdown file. Research, not investment advice. ## Sitemap All posts in Markdown: https://evidinvest.com/blog/index.md · feeds: https://evidinvest.com/blog/rss.xml and https://evidinvest.com/blog/feed.json · the [index for language models](https://evidinvest.com/llms.txt) · the full [sitemap](https://evidinvest.com/sitemap.md).