---
title: "PayPal jumped on a $60.50 Stripe–Advent rumor. The filings show what any buyer is actually bidding on"
description: "Reports of a Stripe–Advent cash offer at $60.50 sent PYPL higher. PayPal has not filed a confirmation. What is filed: $1.79T TPV in 2025, Q1 revenue +7% with soft FY26 EPS guidance, and a 10-K that already warned competition intensifies when businesses combine."
canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/pypl-stripe-advent-6050-offer-filed-tpv-guidance-2026-07-15
date: "2026-07-15"
last_updated: "2026-07-15"
author: "EvidInvest Team"
publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)"
tags: ["PYPL", "PayPal", "Stripe", "M&A", "TPV", "Braintree", "Venmo", "SEC filings", "Aether"]
---

# PayPal jumped on a $60.50 Stripe–Advent rumor. The filings show what any buyer is actually bidding on

- Published: 2026-07-15
- Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB)
- Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/pypl-stripe-advent-6050-offer-filed-tpv-guidance-2026-07-15
- Research, not investment advice.

> Reports of a Stripe–Advent cash offer at $60.50 sent PYPL higher. PayPal has not filed a confirmation. What is filed: $1.79T TPV in 2025, Q1 revenue +7% with soft FY26 EPS guidance, and a 10-K that already warned competition intensifies when businesses combine.

If you bought the [PayPal](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/PYPL) $PYPL spike
today because Stripe and Advent supposedly offered $60.50 a share, stop for a
second. The tape paid for a rumor. PayPal has not filed the bid.

Press reports (Reuters, CNBC and follow-ons) put the cash price at $60.50 a
share, equity value above $53 billion, roughly a 28 percent premium to
Tuesday’s close. Equal Stripe–Advent stakes. Keep the company whole. About
$50 billion of committed bank financing. Board discussion as soon as July 20.
That explains the move. It is not a primary source until an 8-K lands.

If you want a takeout yes/no or a price target, this is the wrong article. The
useful work is the scoreboard any buyer would underwrite: scale, mix, soft
2026 EPS language, and PayPal’s own risk factor that competition intensifies
when businesses combine.

Research, not investment advice.

## Primary sources

Press (unverified by company filing): Stripe + Advent International cash
proposal at $60.50/share, equity value >$53B, reported July 14–15, 2026. Use
for why the tape moved only.

Filed / furnished (Aether-indexed):

[PayPal Form 10-K, year ended Dec 31, 2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm)
— accession 0001633917-26-000024, filed 2026-02-03 (FY25 scale; Item 1A
competition).

[PayPal Form 8-K / Q1 2026 earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000065/pypl-20260505.htm)
— accession 0001633917-26-000065, furnished 2026-05-05 (Aether press hit
`PYPL:2026:Q1:press:000163391726000065`).

[PayPal Form 10-Q, quarter ended March 31, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000067/pypl-20260331.htm)
— accession 0001633917-26-000067 (Braintree / PayPal / Venmo revenue mix;
diluted share count).

## What the filings say you are buying

### Scale — FY 2025 10-K

| Metric | FY 2025 | YoY |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Total payment volume (TPV) | $1.79T ($1,793,979M) | +7% (+6% FXN) |
| Payment transactions | 25.4B | −4% |
| Active accounts (Dec 31, 2025) | 439M | +1% |
| Markets | ~200 | — |
| GAAP net revenues (FY25 exhibit) | $33.2B | +4% |

TPV is the dollar value of payments successfully completed on PayPal’s
platform, net of reversals, including partner-enabled volume and excluding
gateway-exclusive transactions. It is not revenue. Revenue is the thin fee
layer on top of that flow.

The useful FY25 tension sits in the first two rows: more dollars moved, fewer
transactions fired. Any bid thesis that starts from “volume machine” has to
answer whether ticket size and mix are substituting for engagement count.

### Latest operating print — Q1 2026 Exhibit 99.1

| Measure | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | YoY |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| TPV | $464.0B ($463,955M) | $417.2B | +11% (+8% FXN) |
| Payment transactions | 6.5B | — | +7% |
| Active accounts | 439M | 436M | +1% YoY; −0.2M QoQ |
| Payment transactions per active account (TTM) | 58.7 | — | −1% (ex-PSP: +6%) |
| GAAP net revenues | $8,353M | $7,791M | +7% |
| Transaction margin dollars (TM$) | $3,810M | $3,716M | +3% |
| TM$ ex interest on customer balances | $3,536M | $3,418M | +3% |
| GAAP operating income | $1,488M | $1,530M | −3% |
| GAAP operating margin | 17.8% | 19.6% | −182 bps |
| Non-GAAP operating income | $1,541M | $1,616M | −5% |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 18.4% | 20.7% | −229 bps |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $1.21 | $1.29 | −6% |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $1.34 | $1.33 | +1% |
| Cash from operations | $1,134M | $1,160M | −2% |
| Free cash flow | $903M | $964M | −6% |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $1,720M | $1,381M | +25% |

Same exhibit footnote: GAAP EPS includes about −$0.08 from the
strategic-investment / crypto portfolio, versus about +$0.03 in Q1 2025. Part
of the GAAP EPS decline is mark-to-market noise, not checkout.

### Revenue mix inside the print — Q1 2026 10-Q

| Contribution to the YoY revenue lift (approx.) | Amount |
| --- | ---: |
| Braintree | +$410M |
| Core PayPal | +$140M |
| Venmo | +$70M |
| Hedging (unfavorable vs prior year) | ≈ −$120M |

Braintree is doing the heavy dollar lifting. That matters if Stripe is really
on the buy side: merchant infrastructure sits next to the product PayPal already
calls out as a growth engine.

### Soft year setup — guidance still standing (May 5 reiteration)

| Guide | Direction | Prior-year print |
| --- | --- | ---: |
| FY26 GAAP EPS | Mid-single-digit decline | $5.41 |
| FY26 non-GAAP EPS | Low-single-digit decline → slightly positive | $5.31 |
| 2Q26 GAAP EPS (May view) | Mid-single-digit decline | $1.29 |
| 2Q26 non-GAAP EPS (May view) | High-single-digit decline or ~−9% | $1.40 |

That is the filed earnings path before any takeout premium. A $60.50 cash story
is arguing private network value sits above the public EPS path the company left
on the table in May.

### Share count the filings make checkable

| Share metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Weighted-average shares — basic | 913M | 986M |
| Weighted-average shares — diluted | 920M | 999M |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $1.21 | $1.29 |

Buybacks are still shrinking the denominator while the tape argues about an
exit price. Rough arithmetic only: $60.50 × 920M diluted WAS ≈ $55.7B. Press
puts equity value above $53B. Same order of magnitude; sensitive to which share
count bankers use. Treat $53B / $60.50 as reported and 920M as filed until an
8-K publishes consideration.

## The 10-K already wrote the consolidation sentence

From PayPal’s FY25 Item 1A (competition):

> Competition also may intensify as new competitors emerge, businesses combine
> or enter into new partnerships, and established companies in other segments
> expand to become competitive with various aspects of our business.

Today’s tape is that sentence with proper nouns attached. Stripe is not named
as a bidder in the filing. The risk category — combination and partnership —
is PayPal’s own.

Markets often pay for the feeling of a clean exit. Filings force a colder
question: is the rumor clearing a soft public guidance path, buying Braintree
plus branded wallet plus Venmo scale, or both.

## Stripe and Braintree: commercial logic, not DOJ cosplay

Stripe’s public identity is merchant payments infrastructure. Inside PayPal’s
filings, Braintree is already a primary engine of dollar growth, and has
periodically been steered toward profitable growth even when that meant slower
volume (explicit language in the FY24→FY25 10-K cycle on merchant negotiations).

Press that Stripe and Advent would keep PayPal whole and hold equal stakes is
the opposite of a classic PE carve-up. If that structure survives into a real
merger agreement (still unfiled), the interesting questions are commercial:

How much of any bid is branded checkout and Venmo engagement versus unbranded
rails that look more Stripe-like.

Does “keep whole” lower execution risk, or raise overlap issues that only
appear when HSR paperwork shows up.

How does new CEO Enrique Lores — Q1 letter: sharpen strategy, simplify the
organization, urgency on cost and growth — treat $60.50: floor, opening salvo,
or distraction from the soft FY26 EPS path.

No invented antitrust outcomes. Just the filed product map, which already
explains why merchant infra next to PayPal is not a random consortium.

## Deal terms in the press vs what you can verify

| Item | Status | Number |
| --- | --- | ---: |
| Offer price (cash) | Press only | $60.50 / share |
| Equity value | Press only | >$53B |
| Premium to Tue close | Press only | ~28% |
| Bank financing | Press only | ~$50B committed |
| Ownership structure | Press only | Equal Stripe / Advent; keep whole |
| Board timing | Press only | ~July 20 |
| Diluted WAS (Q1) | Filed | 920M |
| $60.50 × 920M (rough) | Arithmetic on filed WAS | ~$55.7B |

Until PayPal files, the left column of “press only” stays unlabeled rumor. The
right-hand filed rows do not.

## What to watch (checklist, not a target)

| Event | Why it matters |
| --- | --- |
| Any Item 1.01 / 8.01 / 7.01 8-K from PayPal | Turns press into primary source |
| Board meeting (~July 20 per press) | Process: reject, engage, or start a real auction clock |
| “Strategic alternatives” / defense language | Separates rumor-pop from process premium |
| Next change to FY26 EPS guide | Tests whether soft public path was the bid’s opening |
| HSR / antitrust disclosure if a merger agreement lands | Overlap leaves the blog and enters the filing |

Until those show up, the honest line is boring and useful. The market paid for
a rumor. The last filed picture is a roughly $1.8 trillion TPV network with soft
2026 EPS guidance and a CEO still mid-reset.

First small step: open the Q1 8-K, find the TPV and EPS lines yourself, then
wait for a PayPal 8-K before treating $60.50 as a fact. Run the numbers on
[PYPL](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/PYPL) and the broader payments set —
[V](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/V),
[MA](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/MA),
[XYZ](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/XYZ) — on EvidInvest (free).

## Sources

Press reports (Reuters / CNBC, July 14–15, 2026) on a Stripe–Advent cash offer
at $60.50 a share. Not a substitute for an SEC filing.

[PayPal FY 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000024/pypl-20251231.htm),
accession 0001633917-26-000024.

[PayPal Q1 2026 Form 8-K / earnings release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000065/pypl-20260505.htm),
accession 0001633917-26-000065.

[PayPal Q1 2026 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000163391726000067/pypl-20260331.htm),
accession 0001633917-26-000067.

Research assembled with [Aether](https://aether.evidinvest.com) from PayPal’s
filed 10-K and 10-Q and the furnished Q1 2026 earnings exhibit. The
Stripe–Advent approach is press-only until PayPal files. Research, not
investment advice.

---

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