---
title: "IBM and Tesla report tomorrow. One already pre-announced a −7% Infrastructure miss; the other already filed a SpaceX chip-fab partnership."
description: "IBM’s July 14 8-K triggered a >20% drawdown after preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2B and Infrastructure −7%. Tesla already printed Q2 deliveries of 480k (+25% YoY) and, in Q1, a SpaceX equity stake plus a joint ‘largest chip fab ever’ plan. Here’s the filing scorecard for July 22."
canonical: https://evidinvest.com/blog/tsla-ibm-q2-2026-earnings-preview-spacex-8k-2026-07-21
date: "2026-07-21"
last_updated: "2026-07-21"
author: "EvidInvest Team"
publisher: "EBD Sweden AB (EvidInvest)"
tags: ["IBM", "TSLA", "Tesla", "SpaceX", "SPCX", "earnings preview", "Q2 2026", "mainframe", "z17", "CapEx", "AI infrastructure", "Robotaxi", "SEC filings", "Aether"]
---

# IBM and Tesla report tomorrow. One already pre-announced a −7% Infrastructure miss; the other already filed a SpaceX chip-fab partnership.

- Published: 2026-07-21
- Author: EvidInvest Team, EvidInvest (published by EBD Sweden AB)
- Canonical URL: https://evidinvest.com/blog/tsla-ibm-q2-2026-earnings-preview-spacex-8k-2026-07-21
- Research, not investment advice.

> IBM’s July 14 8-K triggered a >20% drawdown after preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2B and Infrastructure −7%. Tesla already printed Q2 deliveries of 480k (+25% YoY) and, in Q1, a SpaceX equity stake plus a joint ‘largest chip fab ever’ plan. Here’s the filing scorecard for July 22.

[IBM](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/IBM) (**$IBM**) and
[Tesla](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/TSLA) (**$TSLA**) both report
**Wednesday, July 22**. They are not the same story — but they share a week
where **AI physical spend** is rearranging budgets and balance sheets.

IBM already told you the ugly part. On **July 14** it furnished a CEO letter
with preliminary Q2 results; the stock fell **more than 20%** in the session.
Tomorrow’s call is less about “will they miss?” and more about whether the
miss is **timing** (large deals slipped; Z wrap) or a **durable budget reorder**
away from mainframe/transaction software toward servers, storage and memory.

Tesla already told you the volume part. On **July 2** it filed Q2 production /
deliveries / energy deployments. Tomorrow’s print is ASP, margin, energy
profit, FSD/Robotaxi, and — the filing that matters for the SpaceX debate —
what management says next about the **SpaceX chip-fab partnership** and the
**$2.0B SpaceX equity investment** already on the Q1 cash-flow statement.

Research, not investment advice. Figures below are from SEC Exhibit 99.1
releases unless labeled otherwise.

## Calendar (July 22)

| Company | Timing | What is already filed |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Tesla** | After close; Q&A **4:30pm CT / 5:30pm ET** | Q2 deliveries (Jul 2); Q1 financial update (Apr 22) |
| **IBM** | Call **5:00pm ET** | Preliminary Q2 letter (Jul 14); Q1 full results + FY guide (Apr 22) |

We already wrote a same-day adjudication of IBM’s letter:
[IBM’s Q2 miss — enterprise Infrastructure vs AI physical capex](https://evidinvest.com/blog/ibm-q2-2026-preliminary-infrastructure-capex-shift-2026-07-14).
This preview goes deeper on what **tomorrow** has to confirm or break — and
puts Tesla / SpaceX next to it.

---

## IBM — the July 14 8-K that crushed the stock

### What Krishna filed (preliminary Q2)

From the July 14 Exhibit 99.1 letter (accession `0000051143-26-000070`):

| Measure | Preliminary Q2 2026 |
| --- | ---: |
| Revenue | **$17.2B**, **+1%** YoY |
| Software | **+5%** |
| Consulting | flat (**+1%** constant currency) |
| Infrastructure | **−7%** |
| GAAP diluted EPS | **$2.27** (−2%) |
| Operating (non-GAAP) EPS | **$2.93** (+5%) |
| GAAP gross margin | **57.7%** (−100 bps) |
| Operating (non-GAAP) PTI margin | **19.2%** (**+30 bps**) |
| YTD free cash flow (six months) | **~$4.8B** |

Operating EPS bridge in the exhibit: GAAP **$2.27** + acquisition-related
**$0.58** + retirement-related **$0.08** = **$2.93**.

That mix is why the tape went violent. Headline growth nearly stalled.
Operating EPS still grew. Segment mix told a story markets hated: the franchise
investors paid up for (Z + transaction software) was the shortfall; the parts
of IBM that look like “AI-adjacent kit and platform” were not.

### Why the drawdown was about narrative, not just a miss

Context from the same letter and prior filings:

1. **Q1 was strong.** April 22 release: revenue **$15.9B** (+9% / +6% cc);
   Infrastructure **+15%** with **IBM Z +51%**; full-year guide affirmed —
   **>5%** constant-currency revenue growth and about **+$1B** YoY free cash
   flow.
2. **Soft Infrastructure was telegraphed — at low-single digits.** Krishna
   says April guidance already expected Infrastructure to decline
   **low-single digits for the year, beginning Q2**, wrapping the strongest
   mainframe-program start in IBM history (**z17**).
3. **−7% was worse than that plan**, driven by **Z performance and the
   associated software stack, primarily Transaction Processing**.
4. **Late-June budget raid:** clients “shift[ed] their quarterly capex spend
   toward **servers, storage, and memory**” to secure supply-constrained kit
   ahead of **expected price increases**. IBM “anticipated some supply chain
   related impact” but “did not anticipate the **magnitude** of the capex
   reprioritization.”
5. **Execution confession:** “this quarter we **faltered**… numerous large
   deals failed to close on the timelines we expected, **driving the majority
   of our shortfall**.”
6. **Cybersecurity distraction** also cited as a client headwind.

A >20% one-day move after that cocktail is extreme for IBM. Extreme does not
automatically mean “wrong.” It means the market repriced **mainframe-cycle +
software-growth optionality** overnight. Tomorrow is when IBM either
re-anchors that optionality with backlog / deferred closes / FY guide — or
confirms the reprice.

### The paradox inside the same letter (do not skip this)

| Line Krishna highlighted | Direction |
| --- | --- |
| Infrastructure (segment) | **−7%** |
| **Distributed Infrastructure** (Power + Storage) | **+37%** — “best performance in reported history”; **~$500M** backlog exiting the quarter |
| Red Hat (within Software) | **+11%** sequential acceleration |
| HashiCorp / Confluent | “strong performance” |
| z17 program-to-program | still **~130%** vs z16; clients representing **85% of installed MIPs** maintaining or growing capacity |
| Consulting GenAI signings | growing |

So buyers did **not** stop buying IBM-adjacent physical infrastructure. They
reordered **which** IBM stack got the last weeks of June budget — and the
high-ASP Z / transaction-software complex lost. That is crowding-out inside
the IT budget, not proof that “AI spending is fake” or that “enterprise
software is dead.”

For the longer adjudication of that distinction, see the
[July 14 deep dive](https://evidinvest.com/blog/ibm-q2-2026-preliminary-infrastructure-capex-shift-2026-07-14).

### Lightwell and quantum — real, but not the miss

The letter also unveils **Lightwell** (a **$5B** commitment; **>20,000**
engineers; open-source vulnerability clearinghouse; bank early adopters named)
and a quantum wafer-foundry letter of intent (**$1B** CHIPS + **$1B** IBM cash;
**>$10B** quantum over five years). Keep these in a separate bin. They do not
explain the Transaction Processing shortfall. They will get airtime on the
call; do not let them drown the Z scorecard.

### Scorecard for IBM tomorrow (July 22)

1. **Finals vs prelims** — does $17.2B / Infrastructure −7% / op. EPS $2.93
   hold, or does the “slightly different” warning matter?
2. **How much of the miss was deal slip vs demand?** — backlog, book-to-bill,
   “closed in July” language.
3. **Full-year guide** — April’s **>5%** cc revenue and **+$1B** FCF still
   intact, narrowed, or cut?
4. **Software quality** — was +5% a Transaction Processing air pocket, or a
   broader software deceleration under Red Hat / Hashi / Confluent?
5. **Distributed Infrastructure backlog** — does the ~$500M Power/Storage
   backlog convert, proving the “AI physical kit” demand is real for IBM too?
6. **Tone on capex reprioritization** — one-quarter scramble, or a multi-quarter
   budget hierarchy where Z closes second?

Live multiples: [IBM valuation](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/IBM).

---

## Tesla — deliveries already known; SpaceX is the under-discussed filing

### Q2 volume already on the SEC tape (July 2)

From Tesla’s Q2 2026 production / deliveries / deployments Exhibit 99.1
(accession `0001628280-26-046717`):

| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 (prior-year exhibit) | Approx. YoY |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Production | **451,758** | 410,244 | ~**+10%** |
| Deliveries | **480,126** | 384,122 | ~**+25%** |
| Energy storage deployed | **13.5 GWh** | 9.6 GWh | ~**+41%** |
| Model 3/Y deliveries | **467,762** | 373,728 | ~**+25%** |
| Other models deliveries | **12,364** | 10,394 | ~**+19%** |

Two tells before any P&L:

- Deliveries **exceeded** production — inventory draw, not a production-only
  story.
- Energy storage deployments accelerated harder than vehicle deliveries. If
  Megapack margins hold, Energy can carry a larger share of the narrative than
  the auto tape alone.

Tesla itself warns in the same exhibit: deliveries and storage “should not be
relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results,” which depend on ASP,
cost, FX, and the rest of the 10-Q. Fair. Still, volume is no longer the
mystery for tomorrow — **price/mix and opex** are.

### Last full financial print (Q1 2026)

From the April 22 Q1 update (accession `0001628280-26-026551`):

| Line (Q1 2026) | Amount | YoY (exhibit) |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Total revenue | **$22.39B** | +16% |
| Automotive revenue | **$16.23B** | +16% |
| Energy generation & storage | **$2.41B** | −12% |
| Services and other | **$3.75B** | +42% |
| GAAP gross margin | **21.1%** | +478 bp |
| Automotive GAAP GM | **21.1%** (ex-credits non-GAAP **19.2%**) | — |
| GAAP operating income | **$0.94B** | +136% |
| Operating margin | **4.2%** | — |
| GAAP net income | **~$0.5B** (highlights) | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | **$3.67B** | +30% |
| Free cash flow | **$1.4B** | — |
| Cash + equivalents + ST investments | **$44.7B** | — |
| Vehicle deliveries | **358,023** | +6% |

Q1 Energy revenue was soft (−12%) even as the year-ago and Q4 run-rates were
stronger — another reason tomorrow’s **13.5 GWh** deployment print matters for
sequencing Energy revenue back up.

### The SpaceX potential — what is actually filed (not vibe)

Tesla’s Q1 update is unusually explicit. Three filed facts:

1. **Partnership language:** “Our partnership with SpaceX aims to build the
   **largest chip fab ever**: vertically integrating logic, memory and advanced
   packaging… This begins with the **Tesla-owned Research Fab** on our
   **Gigafactory Texas** campus.”
2. **Product milestone next to it:** final chip design of next-generation
   **AI5** inference processor completed in April.
3. **Balance-sheet / cash-flow fact:** Q1 investing cash flow includes
   **Purchase of SpaceX equity investment — $(2,002)M**. Cash bridge commentary:
   the quarter’s cash change reflects **$1.4B** FCF and **$1.2B** financing
   inflow, “partly offset by **$2.0B** for the SpaceX equity investment.”

That is the cleanest SEC-filed Tesla↔SpaceX bridge available today. It is
**not** a claim that Tesla owns SpaceX, that Starlink revenue hits Tesla’s
P&L, or that the fab is already a foundry peer to TSMC. It **is** a claim that:

- Tesla is putting **real capital** into SpaceX equity;
- management wants the Street to underwrite a **joint semiconductor build**
  aimed at AI inference / training silicon scarcity;
- the first physical node is a **Tesla-owned research fab in Texas**, not a
  press-release moonshot with no address.

SpaceX itself is now in the public-market conversation after its
[S-1 / IPO map](https://evidinvest.com/blog/spacex-ipo-s1-supply-chain-follow-up-aether-analysis-2026-06-11)
(Starlink economics, xAI consolidation, supply-chain graph). For Tesla’s July
22 call, the SpaceX questions that are filing-rooted are:

1. **Status of the Research Fab** — tools, process node ambitions, timeline.
2. **AI5** — where it ships first (vehicle inference, Robotaxi, Optimus,
   training cluster?).
3. **Any further SpaceX equity / related-party disclosure** beyond the $2.0B
   already booked.
4. **How this interacts with Dojo 3** custom silicon and the Cortex GPU clusters
   Tesla already lists as capacity ramps.

Separately, Tesla’s autonomy / robotics stack (FSD Supervised, Robotaxi ramp,
Cybercab / Semi line prep, Optimus “ahead of mass production”) is the other
half of the AI story. Those are Tesla products. The SpaceX fab partnership is
the **input scarcity** hedge — chips — sitting underneath them.

### Scorecard for Tesla tomorrow (July 22)

1. **Automotive ASP and gross margin** — can GM hold near Q1’s high-teens /
   ~21% zone while volumes jump ~25% YoY?
2. **Energy** — does 13.5 GWh convert into a revenue and margin rebound after
   Q1’s −12% Energy revenue?
3. **Opex vs AI build** — Robotaxi / Optimus / AI compute spend vs operating
   margin.
4. **SpaceX** — any incremental color on the fab partnership and equity stake.
5. **FSD / Robotaxi KPIs** — miles, geofence, paid miles, regulatory path.
6. **Cash** — FCF after another quarter of capex and any further strategic
   investments.

Live multiples: [TSLA valuation](https://evidinvest.com/valuation/TSLA).

---

## One frame for the shared Wednesday

| | IBM | Tesla |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Already filed | Prelim miss + CEO letter | Deliveries + Energy GWh; Q1 SpaceX equity + fab partnership |
| Market’s fear | Enterprise AI budget permanently reorders away from Z/software | Auto ASP/margin crack even as volumes recover |
| Bull path for the call | Deal slip reverses; FY guide holds; Distributed backlog converts | Volume + Energy + margin; SpaceX/AI5 treated as multi-year option |
| Bear path | FY guide cut; Software soft beyond Transaction Processing | Margin compression; AI opex without Robotaxi monetization proof |

IBM is a **budget hierarchy** story. Tesla is a **volume-plus-AI-capex** story
with a rare, filed **SpaceX semiconductor** overlay. Same AI cycle. Different
place in the stack.

Stress-test assumptions in the
[DCF calculator](https://evidinvest.com/tools/dcf-calculator).

## Primary sources

**IBM** —
[July 14, 2026 Exhibit 99.1 letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000070/ibm-20260714xex991.htm)
(accession `0000051143-26-000070`);
[Exhibit 99.2 non-GAAP](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000070/ibm-20260714xex992.htm);
[Q1 2026 Exhibit 99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000036/ibm-20260422xex991.htm)
(accession `0000051143-26-000036`);
prior deep dive:
[IBM Q2 prelim Infrastructure vs AI capex](https://evidinvest.com/blog/ibm-q2-2026-preliminary-infrastructure-capex-shift-2026-07-14).

**Tesla** —
[Q2 2026 production/deliveries Exhibit 99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026046717/exhibit99111111.htm)
(accession `0001628280-26-046717`, Jul 2, 2026);
[Q2 2025 deliveries (YoY base)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025033842/exhibit99111.htm)
(accession `0001628280-25-033842`);
[Q1 2026 Update Exhibit 99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026026551/exhibit991.htm)
(accession `0001628280-26-026551`) — SpaceX fab partnership + $2.0B equity
investment;
[Q4/FY2025 Update](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003837/exhibit991.htm)
(accession `0001628280-26-003837`).

SpaceX public-filing context:
[SpaceX S-1 supply-chain follow-up](https://evidinvest.com/blog/spacex-ipo-s1-supply-chain-follow-up-aether-analysis-2026-06-11).

Research, not investment advice.

---

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