Microsoft Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-89.7% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-86.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-76.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $78.33 | -95.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $423.00 | -73.6% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $508.72 | -68.2% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $132.16 | -91.7% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $215.48 | -86.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $196.24 | -87.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $330.02 | -79.4% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, 4338.HK appears overvalued at the current price of $1600.00. The base case fair value of $215.48 implies 86.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.