Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-35.0% vs price
Base Case (Median)
27.1% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
235.1% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $48.76 | 354.0% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $11.84 | 10.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $5.36 | -50.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $15.47 | 44.0% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $42.84 | 298.8% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $3.95 | -63.2% | Medium (20%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, ARI appears fairly valued at the current price of $10.74. The base case fair value of $13.65 implies 27.1% upside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.