Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-98.1% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-96.8% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-95.3% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $3.35 | -99.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $21.05 | -95.0% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $21.40 | -94.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $12.15 | -97.1% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $13.25 | -96.8% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $17.93 | -95.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $4.06 | -99.0% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, ARM appears overvalued at the current price of $418.88. The base case fair value of $13.25 implies 96.8% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.