ASML Holding N.V.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-87.3% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-80.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-63.8% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $95.59 | -94.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $700.41 | -57.7% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $1013.42 | -38.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $176.86 | -89.3% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $323.05 | -80.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $496.43 | -70.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $243.65 | -85.3% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, ASML appears overvalued at the current price of $1655.26. The base case fair value of $323.05 implies 80.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.