ASML Holding N.V.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-89.1% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-83.0% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-71.3% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $93.63 | -95.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $648.65 | -65.9% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $958.13 | -49.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $171.38 | -91.0% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $323.05 | -83.0% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $441.89 | -76.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $242.64 | -87.2% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, ASML appears overvalued at the current price of $1899.48. The base case fair value of $323.05 implies 83.0% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.