Microsoft Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-66.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-53.1% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-25.0% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $17.64 | -95.8% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $412.04 | -1.6% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $521.46 | 24.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $132.16 | -68.4% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $215.48 | -48.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $196.20 | -53.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $148.51 | -64.5% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, MSFT appears overvalued at the current price of $418.57. The base case fair value of $196.20 implies 53.1% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.