Microsoft Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-64.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-49.8% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-18.6% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $12.03 | -96.9% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $421.23 | 7.7% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $510.13 | 30.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $132.16 | -66.2% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $215.48 | -44.9% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $196.20 | -49.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $145.28 | -62.8% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, MSFT appears overvalued at the current price of $390.99. The base case fair value of $196.20 implies 49.8% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.