Alcoa Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-60.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-1.6% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
52.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $13.81 | -73.3% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $86.98 | 68.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $296.26 | 472.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $50.90 | -1.6% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $70.71 | 36.7% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $26.98 | -47.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $7.36 | -85.8% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, AA appears fairly valued at the current price of $51.71. The base case fair value of $50.90 implies 1.6% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.