AAON, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-85.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-74.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-70.1% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $2.89 | -96.7% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $36.95 | -58.0% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $22.44 | -74.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $21.72 | -75.3% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $27.70 | -68.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $9.75 | -88.9% | High (70%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, AAON appears overvalued at the current price of $88.09. The base case fair value of $22.08 implies 74.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.