Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-80.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-76.2% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-57.0% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $11.04 | -80.5% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $13.51 | -76.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Graham Number | $24.38 | -57.0% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $53.42 | -5.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-22.12 | -139.0% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 5 out of 8 methods, AAP appears overvalued at the current price of $56.72. The base case fair value of $13.51 implies 76.2% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.