Argan, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-83.0% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-79.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-21.3% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $81.00 | -86.3% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $220.18 | -62.6% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $706.79 | 19.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $93.82 | -84.1% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $121.06 | -79.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $724.11 | 22.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $106.23 | -82.0% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, AGX appears overvalued at the current price of $589.27. The base case fair value of $121.06 implies 79.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.