Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-53.3% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-2.4% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
151.1% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $4.77 | -68.8% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $50.96 | 233.3% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $164.73 | 977.4% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $14.93 | -2.4% | Medium (40%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $9.51 | -37.8% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $25.84 | 69.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-0.61 | -104.0% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, AUPH appears fairly valued at the current price of $15.29. The base case fair value of $14.93 implies 2.4% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.