AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-59.0% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-39.2% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-19.8% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $39.86 | -78.3% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $107.94 | -41.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $64.57 | -64.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $116.05 | -36.9% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $158.21 | -14.0% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $228.91 | 24.4% | Medium (20%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, AVB appears overvalued at the current price of $184.06. The base case fair value of $112.00 implies 39.2% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.