The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-59.5% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-36.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
12.1% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-304.28 | -379.0% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $69.25 | -36.5% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $155.94 | 43.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $27.88 | -74.4% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $60.57 | -44.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $88.50 | -18.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $169.02 | 55.0% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, CAKE appears fairly valued at the current price of $109.07. The base case fair value of $69.25 implies 36.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.