Cognex Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-86.7% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-80.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-69.6% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $5.66 | -91.5% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $26.11 | -60.8% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $12.03 | -81.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $14.34 | -78.5% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $12.71 | -80.9% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $31.93 | -52.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $5.18 | -92.2% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, CGNX appears overvalued at the current price of $66.60. The base case fair value of $12.71 implies 80.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.