Carvana Co.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-77.8% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-61.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-42.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $4.11 | -94.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $40.54 | -42.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $65.25 | -6.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $15.59 | -77.8% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/FCF | $27.00 | -61.5% | Medium (20%) |
Based on 5 out of 8 methods, CVNA appears overvalued at the current price of $70.11. The base case fair value of $27.00 implies 61.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.