Dollar Tree, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-61.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-11.4% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-1.8% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-35.52 | -127.4% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $117.62 | -9.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $136.87 | 5.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $51.26 | -60.4% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $114.83 | -11.4% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $151.44 | 16.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $48.85 | -62.3% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, DLTR appears overvalued at the current price of $129.54. The base case fair value of $114.83 implies 11.4% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.