Duolingo, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-72.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-42.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
49.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $28.45 | -78.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $211.41 | 62.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $673.28 | 417.3% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $74.31 | -42.9% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $42.99 | -67.0% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $177.05 | 36.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $15.61 | -88.0% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, DUOL appears fairly valued at the current price of $130.16. The base case fair value of $74.31 implies 42.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.