First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-162.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-49.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-36.1% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-47.28 | -484.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $5.44 | -55.8% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $6.89 | -44.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $8.19 | -33.5% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $17.03 | 38.4% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-12.03 | -197.7% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, FWRG appears overvalued at the current price of $12.31. The base case fair value of $6.17 implies 49.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.