The St. Joe Company
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-60.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-47.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-32.4% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $11.18 | -83.5% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $31.82 | -53.1% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $39.35 | -41.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $25.15 | -62.9% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $47.94 | -29.3% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $73.81 | 8.9% | Medium (20%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, JOE appears overvalued at the current price of $67.78. The base case fair value of $35.58 implies 47.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.