Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-34.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-15.3% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
14.0% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $40.89 | -71.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $151.99 | 7.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $171.54 | 20.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $70.63 | -50.2% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $114.76 | -19.1% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $174.06 | 22.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $120.10 | -15.3% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, LOPE appears fairly valued at the current price of $141.84. The base case fair value of $120.10 implies 15.3% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.