The Mosaic Company
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-80.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-55.0% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-35.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-31.78 | -249.7% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $3.37 | -84.1% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $6.40 | -69.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $12.71 | -40.1% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $81.70 | 284.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $14.03 | -33.9% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, MOS appears overvalued at the current price of $21.23. The base case fair value of $9.56 implies 55.0% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.