MP Materials Corp. (MP) Fair Value 2026 — DCF & Multi-Method Analysis | EvidInvest | EvidInvest

MP — Fair Value Analysis

MP Materials Corp.

Current: $58.51Overvalued

Fair Value Range

Bear Case (25th pct.)

$-14.22

-124.3% vs price

Base Case (Median)

$-9.42

-116.1% vs price

Bull Case (75th pct.)

$-4.62

-107.9% vs price

$-14.22$-9.42$-4.62

◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull

Method Breakdown

Method	Est. Value	vs Price	Weight
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)	$-19.02	-132.5%	High (40%)
EV/EBITDA	$0.17	-99.7%	Medium (20%)

Interpretation

Based on 2 out of 8 methods, MP appears overvalued at the current price of $58.51. The base case fair value of $-9.42 implies 116.1% downside.

Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.