Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-56.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-40.1% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-22.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $1.63 | -89.4% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $8.35 | -45.7% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $10.06 | -34.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $17.63 | 14.8% | High (80%) |
Based on 4 out of 8 methods, MSDL appears overvalued at the current price of $15.36. The base case fair value of $9.20 implies 40.1% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.