Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-22.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
35.7% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
62.9% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $22.50 | -19.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $37.79 | 35.7% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $54.69 | 96.4% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $20.72 | -25.6% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $40.90 | 46.9% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $49.83 | 78.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $17.54 | -37.0% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, NGVC appears fairly valued at the current price of $27.85. The base case fair value of $37.79 implies 35.7% upside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.