Shopify Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-93.1% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-86.4% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-74.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-2.45 | -102.2% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $25.56 | -77.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $39.15 | -65.4% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $15.43 | -86.4% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $11.86 | -89.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $32.76 | -71.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $3.69 | -96.7% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, SHOP appears overvalued at the current price of $113.23. The base case fair value of $15.43 implies 86.4% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.