SPS Commerce, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-55.0% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-38.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-26.6% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $18.50 | -75.7% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $52.47 | -31.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $59.51 | -21.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $34.60 | -54.6% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $46.61 | -38.9% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $104.91 | 37.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $33.98 | -55.4% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, SPSC appears overvalued at the current price of $76.23. The base case fair value of $46.61 implies 38.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.