Turning Point Brands, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-67.9% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-62.7% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-44.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $24.80 | -70.9% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $42.82 | -49.8% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $29.87 | -65.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $31.85 | -62.7% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $63.31 | -25.8% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $21.44 | -74.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $52.29 | -38.7% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, TPB appears overvalued at the current price of $85.30. The base case fair value of $31.85 implies 62.7% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.