Twilio Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-98.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-76.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-42.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-76.27 | -133.4% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $182.01 | -20.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Graham Number | $90.88 | -60.2% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $16.38 | -92.8% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $145.05 | -36.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-0.64 | -100.3% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 6 out of 8 methods, TWLO appears overvalued at the current price of $228.61. The base case fair value of $53.63 implies 76.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.