Union Pacific Corporation
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-63.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-38.2% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-26.8% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $123.58 | -58.7% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $238.98 | -20.2% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $94.28 | -68.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $93.06 | -68.9% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $218.51 | -27.0% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $219.54 | -26.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $185.11 | -38.2% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, UNP appears overvalued at the current price of $299.30. The base case fair value of $185.11 implies 38.2% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.