United Parcel Service, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-39.7% vs price
Base Case (Median)
2.0% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
18.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $-4.05 | -104.0% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $104.09 | 2.0% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $74.92 | -26.6% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $48.10 | -52.9% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $140.48 | 37.7% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $129.21 | 26.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $112.67 | 10.4% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, UPS appears fairly valued at the current price of $102.02. The base case fair value of $104.09 implies 2.0% upside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.