Vistra Corp.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-60.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-50.3% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-13.5% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $212.20 | 50.1% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $89.95 | -36.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $70.30 | -50.3% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $45.09 | -68.1% | Medium (40%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $154.56 | 9.3% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $66.22 | -53.2% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $30.23 | -78.6% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, VST appears overvalued at the current price of $141.38. The base case fair value of $70.30 implies 50.3% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.