ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-81.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-36.9% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
16.0% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $2.47 | -91.8% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $49.40 | 63.7% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $153.04 | 407.1% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $19.03 | -37.0% | Medium (40%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $8.90 | -70.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $20.60 | -31.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $-1.87 | -106.2% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, ACAD appears fairly valued at the current price of $30.18. The base case fair value of $19.03 implies 36.9% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.