EvidInvest Blog
Investment analysis, valuation guides, and market insights.
The bottleneck for AI isn't chips anymore — it's gigawatts. And the power deals are now in SEC filings
Oracle's June 10 earnings printed a $638B backlog and a $90B+ capex plan, then the stock fell ~10% on one question: where does the power come from? We map the AI power constraint through SEC filings — named gigawatt offtake deals (DTE/Oracle 1.4 GW, DTE/Google 1 GW, Amazon's 3.8 GW added, Talen's nuclear fleet) and the cost-allocation mechanism utilities are filing — with evidence labels throughout.
The memory shortage made Micron rich. Now watch who pays — the bill is starting to show up in the filings
DRAM contract prices are up 58–63% and NAND 70–75% in a single quarter — the worst memory squeeze in 15 years. The winner (Micron) is obvious. The second-order story is who absorbs the cost: server OEMs, system builders and PC makers. We trace the squeeze through SEC filings — Super Micro's component-pricing risk language, supplier concentration, and the downstream cost pass-through — and label what's confirmed vs inferred.
We mapped the AI supply chain from SEC filings — free, and now you can search it
EvidInvest's supply-chain maps are live and free: 550+ companies, 836 relationships, 93% traced to a filing or cited source. Plus a fresh layer — the power-delivery chain that physically feeds every AI rack, from SiC substrates to the chips on NVIDIA's boards.
SpaceX prices the largest IPO in history tonight. Here's what the S-1 says — and what it changes for the supply-chain map
SPCX lists June 12 at a $1.75T valuation. We break down the S-1 financials — Starlink's 63% EBITDA margin, xAI's $12.7B capex, 94× revenue — and update our SEC-evidence supply-chain map with the EchoStar node Aether surfaced.
Who actually supplies SpaceX? A data-driven map of the Starlink economy
We searched SEC filings and earnings transcripts with Aether to find the public companies inside SpaceX's supply chain and Starlink's customer base — then ran the financials on every name. AMD, Graham Corp, Amphenol, United Airlines and more.
Marvell is becoming an AI data-center interconnect company: what the filings confirm
Aether SEC filing analysis of Marvell Technology's AI data-center exposure, interconnect products, customer concentration, fabless supply-chain risks, and evidence boundaries.
AAOI's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Applied Optoelectronics' AI data-center optical transceivers, hyperscale customer evidence, SpaceX boundary, and one-year AAOI stock performance.
Astera Labs (ALAB): the AI rack connectivity thesis, without the SpaceX overclaim
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Astera Labs' AI data-center PCIe/CXL/Ethernet connectivity exposure, customer concentration, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year ALAB stock performance.
AMD's AI upside after a 345% run: what the filings confirm
Aether's SEC-first read of AMD: Data Center growth, OpenAI and Meta warrant-backed demand signals, supplier-chain dependencies, and valuation after a sharp one-year rerating.
ARM after a 224% run: what the SEC filings confirm about AI infrastructure
Aether's SEC-first read of Arm: AI infrastructure exposure, royalty/licensing economics, customer concentration, supply-chain dependencies, and valuation boundaries after a sharp one-year rerating.
Broadcom's AI infrastructure thesis is now visible in the filings
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Broadcom's AI infrastructure revenue exposure, Google/Anthropic customer evidence, supply-chain dependencies, and one-year AVGO stock performance.
Ciena's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Ciena's AI data-center optics exposure, SpaceX evidence boundaries, and one-year CIEN stock performance.
Coherent (COHR) Deep Dive: The AI Optics Profitability Turn, NVIDIA's Co-Packaged Bet, and the SpaceX Boundary
A deep-dive, SEC-backed analysis of Coherent: the Q3 FY2026 margin inflection, the $2B NVIDIA private placement and co-packaged-optics collaboration, the 800G to 1.6T transceiver engine, why the mechanical valuation model breaks on COHR, and the exact boundary of the SpaceX/Starlink story.
Credo's AI data-center connectivity thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC-backed CRDO analysis: AI data-center connectivity exposure, Microsoft and Amazon evidence, optical/electrical interconnect positioning, SpaceX boundary, and one-year stock performance.
Cisco's AI data-center connectivity thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Cisco's AI data-center networking, coherent optics via Acacia, hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year CSCO stock performance.
Fabrinet's AI data-center optics thesis is strong — but SpaceX is not confirmed
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Fabrinet's AI data-center optics exposure, NVIDIA/Cisco customer concentration, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year FN stock performance.
Corning's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Corning's AI data-center fiber, optical connectivity, hyperscale customer evidence, SpaceX boundary, and one-year GLW stock performance.
Micron's AI memory cycle is now visible in the filings
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Micron's AI memory cycle, customer concentration, HBM supply-chain bottlenecks, and evidence boundaries for MU.
NVIDIA's AI infrastructure story after a 63% run: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of NVIDIA's AI infrastructure exposure, Data Center growth, customer concentration, supplier dependencies, and one-year NVDA stock performance.
Oracle's AI infrastructure backlog: what the filings confirm
Aether's SEC-first analysis of Oracle's AI infrastructure backlog: OCI growth, RPO expansion, customer demand signals, GPU/data-center dependencies, and past-year ORCL performance.
SMCI's AI infrastructure boom: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filings show SMCI's AI infrastructure growth, customer concentration, supplier dependencies, margin pressure, and volatile one-year stock performance.
VIAVI's AI data-center signal is test and measurement, not a SpaceX customer claim
Aether and SEC filing analysis of VIAVI's AI data-center optical/network test exposure, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year VIAV stock performance.
Sivers Semiconductors and the AI Photonics Supply Chain Thesis
Aether-backed research on Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE), Ayar Labs, O-Net, POET, WIN and the external-laser/CPO supply chain behind AI data centers.
When MPT Breaks: What 3 Market Crises Reveal About Portfolio Theory
In 2008, stock correlations spiked to 0.84. In 2020, they hit 0.68. We ran the numbers on how MPT portfolios actually performed through 3 major crises — and what it means for how you build your portfolio today.
Visa Put an MCP Server in Its Annual Report — And Finance Is About to Change Forever
Visa's FY2025 10-K explicitly discloses an MCP server. CrowdStrike's 10-K flags MCP security risks. These are audited annual disclosures, not press releases. Here's what it means for the future of finance AI.
The AI Chokepoint Nobody Talks About: How TSMC Became the World's Most Systemically Important Company
Every major AI chip — NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300, Apple M4, Google TPU — is manufactured at one company's fabs in Taiwan. We map the AI supply chain concentration risk and run a fair value analysis on TSM.
From Ticker to Fair Value in 60 Seconds: Using EvidInvest's get_growth_trajectory MCP Tool
A step-by-step tutorial for AI builders using Claude or Cursor. Learn to call the get_growth_trajectory tool, read the five EPS trajectory shapes, and compare NVDA vs INTC — two companies at opposite ends of the spectrum.
META Platforms Intrinsic Value 2026: Revenue Hit $200B — So Why Is EPS Flat?
META grew revenue 22% to $201B in FY2025, but EPS barely moved ($23.49 vs $23.86 in FY2024). We explain why that's misleading, run the DCF bear/base/bull analysis at current prices, and make the case that the market is pricing the wrong story.
The DCF Verdict on AI Datacenter Stocks: Why NVDA, AVGO, and SMCI Valuations Diverge by 1,000%
We ran three valuation methods on NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Super Micro using real historical CAGRs, a normalized growth model, and Wall Street consensus. The outputs differ by up to 1,000%. Here is why — and what it tells you.
Mag 7 Carries Q1 2026 Again — The Concentration Trade Is Back
S&P 500 beat rate hit 84% in Q1 2026. But strip out the Magnificent 7 and index earnings growth drops from +11% to +3.5%. What this means for your diversified portfolio.
How to Read SEC Filings During a Geopolitical Shock
When a Taiwan strait headline drops, most investors panic. We built a supply chain graph from 557 real SEC filing edges to show you exactly which paragraph to read — and which chokepoints actually matter.
AI & Data Center Earnings Season: The $520B Capex Reality Check
Intel surges on a revenue beat, AMD rallies ahead of its report, and NVIDIA looms. We break down the Q1 2026 semiconductor earnings with real data -- what's reported, what's coming, and what the valuations say.
Build a Portfolio Automation Pipeline with AI: Stock Lists, Optimization, and Rebalancing via MCP
Use EvidInvest MCP to create stock lists, run MPT optimization, check valuations, and find rebalance candidates — all through natural language. No spreadsheets, no UI.
Financial MCP Servers Compared: Raw Data vs. Real Analysis
We compared 6 financial MCP servers for Claude. Most just wrap data APIs. Here is what happens when your AI agent gets pre-computed valuations, DCF models, and portfolio optimization instead of raw numbers.
Q1 2026 Earnings Season Kicks Off: Big Bank Scoreboard
Goldman Sachs beats by 7%, Citi profits surge 42%, JPMorgan posts $50B revenue. We break down the numbers, chart the volatility, and show what the valuations say.
We Ran MPT on the Top 100 US Stocks. Here is What We Found.
Sharpe ratio of 2.32. Expected return of 52%. We tested the math behind hedge-fund portfolio optimization on real US stocks — here is what it looks like in practice.
15 Years of MPT: How Portfolio Construction Beat the Market (With Real Data)
We ran Modern Portfolio Theory optimization across 3 different portfolio types — tech, healthcare, and diversified — over 15 years of real data. Here is what the math actually shows.
I Built a Magnificent 7 Dashboard in 10 Minutes Using EvidInvest MCP
Screener websites are dying. Here is how to build a live Mag7 comparison dashboard with 1-year performance, P/E, PEG, and growth metrics using EvidInvest MCP and a few tool calls.
Magnificent 7 in 2026: Which One Is Actually Cheap?
PEG ratios, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and analyst upside for all 7. The data shows two clear value plays, two fairly valued, and one in a category of its own.
Is NVDA Overvalued in 2026? A DCF Analysis
NVIDIA's stock has soared on AI demand. We run a DCF to find NVDA's intrinsic value in 2026 — and whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
How EvidInvest's Portfolio Optimizer Works: Markowitz, Max Sharpe, and Real Data
A plain-language explanation of Modern Portfolio Theory, how we implemented it with real price data and covariance shrinkage, and what the optimizer actually tells you — including its honest limitations.
Why Your Stock Score Might Be Lying to You
Stock scoring tools like Simply Wall St apply the same algorithm to banks, SaaS companies, and commodities miners. Here's why that's a problem — and what to look for instead.
What Is DCF Valuation? A Beginner Guide
Learn how Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis works, why investors use it, and how to calculate intrinsic value for any stock.