EvidInvest Blog
Investment analysis, valuation guides, and market insights.
Axon Q2 2026: ten straight quarters above 30% — revenue $904M, AI up ~700%, guidance raised again
Axon's filed Q2 2026: revenue up 35% to $904M — the tenth consecutive quarter above 30% — with ARR up 39% to $1.6B, AI Era revenue growing ~700%, Dedrone past $100M, and full-year guidance raised to 32-34%. The stock-comp line under the 3.3% net margin is the part worth reading.
AMD Q2 2026: data center revenue doubles to $6.7 billion — and the guide says it isn't done
AMD's filed Q2 2026: revenue $11.5B with Data Center up 107% to $6.7B, GAAP EPS $1.38, and a Q3 guide of ~$13B — roughly 41% growth. Gaming fell 31% the same quarter the AI segment doubled. The filed numbers behind the after-hours noise.
Gartner Q2 2026: the $860M asterisk didn't repeat — EPS up 33%, contract value accelerating, guidance raised into a strong dollar
Follow-up to yesterday's preview: Gartner's filed Q2 shows diluted EPS $4.14 (+33.1%), contract value growth accelerating to +1.7% FX-neutral, revenue swinging back to +2.8% adjusted, another $547M of buybacks, and raised full-year guidance. The preview's numbers, closed against the filing.
The headline is AMD’s $11.2B guide. The filing is a 160M-share warrant at $0.01 — Aug 4 data-center wave (AMD, ANET, WDC, GFS, SMCI)
If you trade Tuesday’s AI-infra prints off headlines, the filings already set the bars: AMD Q1 Data Center $5.8B (+57%) plus a Meta performance warrant for up to 160M shares at a penny; ANET’s 75%-fewer-racks claim; WDC gross margin 45.7%→50.2%; GFS guiding $1.76B; SMCI’s >$60B orders with a cancellable-orders caveat. Research, not tips.
UNH’s 86.7% MCR had an $860M asterisk — plus Axon and Gartner still live Aug 4
If you took UnitedHealth’s 86.7% medical care ratio at face value, the filing adds a catch: $860M of net favorable prior-period development helped it. Axon reports off Q1 $807M (+34%, ninth straight 30%+ quarter); Gartner off contract value $5.3B but revenue down 1.5%. Research, not tips.
SpaceX’s first public print has no precedent — but the S-1 already graded it: $18.67B revenue, an AI segment losing $6.4B, a $19.6B spectrum bet
If you plan to trade SPCX’s maiden earnings Tuesday, the S-1 is the only scoreboard that exists: FY25 revenue $18.67B, Starlink $11.39B (+50%), AI deep in losses after the Feb 2 xAI merger, and a ~$19.6B EchoStar spectrum deal pending. GHM already filed record $532.6M backlog, ~85% Defense. Research, not tips.
Apple Q3 FY2026: the strongest June quarter ever — iPhone up 22%, a 50% gross margin, and a tariff asterisk worth reading
Apple's filed Q3 FY2026: revenue up 16% to $109.4B with June-quarter records for iPhone, Mac and Services, EPS up 29% to $2.02, and gross margin at 50.1% — including roughly 2 points and $0.11 of EPS from tariff refunds the filing itemizes.
Amazon Q2 2026: AWS at its fastest growth in 18 quarters — and free cash flow just went negative
Amazon's filed Q2 2026: AWS accelerated to 37% growth at a 39.4% margin, operating income rose 43%, and net income hit $62.6B on a $53.4B Anthropic gain. The same exhibit shows trailing free cash flow at negative $7.6B after a $66.1B capex increase the filing attributes primarily to AI.
The order books nobody reads: $1 trillion of signed AI demand, straight from the filings
Oracle $638B RPO. Microsoft $678B commercial RPO, filed this week. Micron's $100B take-or-pay minimums. AWS commitments near $195B. Google Cloud backlog compounding. The AI bubble debate ignores the one thing that is actually signed.
Meta Q2 2026: revenue up 28%, profit down 14%, free cash flow $784 million — the quarter the AI bill landed
Meta's filed Q2 2026: revenue grew 28% to $60.8B at the top of guidance, but $31.1B of quarterly capex consumed 97% of operating cash flow, operating margin fell from 43% to 31%, and the exhibit now discloses $83.7B of long-term debt and an 8,000-person headcount reduction.
Microsoft Q4 FY2026: Azure crosses $100 billion, the order book hits $678 billion — the other side of the AI capex trade
Microsoft's filed Q4 FY2026: revenue up 18% to $90.0B with Azure accelerating to 43% growth, commercial RPO up 84% to $678B, and fiscal-year Azure revenue past $100B for the first time. Operating income grew in line with revenue — filed the same day Meta's margin compressed twelve points paying for the same build-out.
The memory supercycle is now signed in contracts: inside Micron's $100B take-or-pay floor
Michael Burry is short Micron. Micron's own filings show $41.5B quarterly revenue, a $50B guide at 86% gross margin, and 16 take-or-pay contracts with roughly $100B of minimum revenue through 2030. We read the documents both sides should be quoting.
Oracle is down two-thirds. Its order book grew 363%. Both are true.
ORCL trades about two-thirds below its high, near its 52-week low, while its filed RPO hit $638 billion, up 363%. The market is not repricing AI demand — it is repricing how the buildout is funded. The filings let you separate the two.
Intel Q2 2026: fastest growth in 15 years, a guide beat on every line — and an $11B paper loss from the government's own shares
Intel's filed Q2 2026: revenue $16.1B up 25%, beating its own guide by $1.3B at the top end, DCAI up 59%, foundry losses narrowing, gross margin 3 points above guide. The GAAP net loss of $11.0B traces to a single $12.5B non-cash mark-to-market on CHIPS Act escrowed shares — every figure cited to the release.
Alphabet Q2 2026: Cloud up 82%, buybacks at zero, and a $49.6B equity raise — the AI build-out has a price tag
Alphabet's filed Q2 2026: revenue up 24% to $119.8B with Google Cloud accelerating 82% to $24.8B and Cloud operating income tripling. The same exhibit shows the funding side — a $49.6B June equity raise, $20.3B of new notes, buybacks stopped at zero, and $145.8B of first-half investing outflows.
IBM Q2 2026: the pre-announcement held — $17.2B revenue, guidance trimmed to 4–5%, IBM Z down 42%
IBM's final Q2 2026 results confirmed the rare July 14 pre-announcement line for line: $17.2B revenue up 1%, GAAP EPS $2.27, operating EPS $2.93. What's new in the final release: full-year growth guidance cut to 4–5% constant currency, a 42% IBM Z decline inside Infrastructure, and $10.5B of acquisitions year to date.
Tesla Q2 2026: $28.2B revenue, deliveries +25% — and free cash flow just went negative
Tesla's Q2 2026 update, straight from the filed press exhibit: revenue up 25% to $28.24B, deliveries at 480,126, services up 50% — against a $0.4B operating income, a regulatory-credit collapse to $146M, and a $5.8B capex quarter that pushed free cash flow to -$1.1B.
IBM and Tesla report tomorrow. One already pre-announced a −7% Infrastructure miss; the other already filed a SpaceX chip-fab partnership.
IBM’s July 14 8-K triggered a >20% drawdown after preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2B and Infrastructure −7%. Tesla already printed Q2 deliveries of 480k (+25% YoY) and, in Q1, a SpaceX equity stake plus a joint ‘largest chip fab ever’ plan. Here’s the filing scorecard for July 22.
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Mag4 week is Cloud and CapEx. Microsoft and Meta print Wednesday; Apple and Amazon Thursday.
One scoreboard for the July 29–30 mega-cap prints: Microsoft Cloud and $627B RPO, Meta’s $125–145B CapEx guide, Amazon’s $200B 2026 build and AWS at +28%, and Apple as the Services/on-device contrast. Filed numbers from the last two quarters — and what grades the coming week.
Meta × Anthropic compute rumor: every Aether number that actually matters
NYT says Meta may lease ~$10B of AI compute to Anthropic. Aether shows no filed Anthropic deal — and a Meta stack of $125–145B 2026 capex, $237.7B cloud/infra commitments, Blue Owl lease-back, AMD Instinct warrant to 6 GW, and an ads engine still funding it.
TSMC Q2 2026: $40.2B revenue, 67.7% GM, Q3 $44.6–45.8B — Aether-backed scorecard, outlook and risks
TSMC printed $40.2B revenue and 67.7% gross margin with HPC at 66%. Using Aether-indexed Form 20-F and the July 16 press release: FY25 baselines, Q3 arithmetic, capex path, and the concentration, export-control, utility and overseas-fab risks that still sit in the filing.
PayPal jumped on a $60.50 Stripe–Advent rumor. The filings show what any buyer is actually bidding on
Reports of a Stripe–Advent cash offer at $60.50 sent PYPL higher. PayPal has not filed a confirmation. What is filed: $1.79T TPV in 2025, Q1 revenue +7% with soft FY26 EPS guidance, and a 10-K that already warned competition intensifies when businesses combine.
IBM's Q2 miss: enterprise Infrastructure fell while AI physical capex crowded out the stack
IBM's July 14 preliminary Q2 shows $17.2B revenue and Infrastructure −7% as clients redirected late-June spend to servers, storage and memory. Red Hat and Distributed Infrastructure grew — the issue is which 'infrastructure' buyers funded.
TSMC Q2 2026 results vs preview: $40.2B revenue, 67.7% gross margin, Q3 guidance
TSMC has now reported: $40.2B Q2 revenue, 67.7% gross margin, Q3 2026 guidance of $44.6–45.8B. This pre-earnings baseline explains the margin, N3/CoWoS capacity and $52–56B capex questions the quarter had to answer — with links to the full results scorecard.
Delta Q2 2026: +14% revenue, −26% EPS — the fuel quarter, in filed numbers
Delta's June-quarter 8-K, read the day it was filed: record $17.7B adjusted revenue up 13.9% on 1% capacity, TRASM +12.4% — colliding with $4.1B of fuel at $3.66/gal (+67%). Adjusted EPS fell 26% while the affirmed full-year guide still promises +20% earnings growth, which quietly demands a strong second half. Every number traces to accession 0000027904-26-000029.
PepsiCo Q2 2026: ignore the +137% EPS headline — the real number is +1%
PepsiCo's Q2 2026 filing, read hours after it hit the SEC: the +137% EPS print is a prior-year impairment base effect the release itself explains. Underneath: core constant-currency EPS +1%, Frito-Lay deliberately trading price for volume share, NA beverage growth that is mostly acquisitions, and an international business carrying the whole quarter. Every number traces to accession 0000077476-26-000037.
Delta reports tomorrow. Its own filings already told you the three numbers that matter.
Delta Air Lines reports June-quarter results July 9. Instead of guessing, we pulled what management filed in April: low-teens revenue growth guided on flat capacity, a ~$1 billion pre-tax profit promise against a $2 billion fuel headwind, and a $6.50–7.50 full-year EPS frame. Here is the scorecard the filings set up — and where it could crack.
PepsiCo reports tomorrow. Watch one filed number: whether people are buying more chips, or just paying more for them.
PepsiCo reports second-quarter results July 9. The filed Q1 showed the first real North America foods volume growth after a long pricing-only stretch — the affordability bet starting to work. Here is the scorecard from the SEC-filed releases: the volume line that matters, the FX tailwind flattering the headline, and the guidance management has now affirmed twice.
Burry shorted Micron. The headlines say he's fighting $100 billion in contracts. The filings say something more interesting.
Michael Burry's Micron short, adjudicated against the SEC record: the $100B contract wall is real and management-stated — but the filed 10-Q shows only a ~$5B minimum, because the wall was signed after quarter close. What's filed, what's only spoken, what's filed for the bears, and where the short thesis survives.
Micron's latest quarter: what the filing says about the memory super-cycle and who pays
Aether + SEC analysis of Micron's record fiscal Q3 2026: $41.46B revenue, 84.6% gross margin, HBM4 in volume, multi-year take-or-pay customer deals, and the memory/HBM supply chain behind the upside — confirmed facts vs inferred thesis.
Amphenol's AI data-center thesis is a connectivity story, not a SpaceX claim
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Amphenol's AI data-center connectivity exposure, SpaceX evidence boundaries, and one-year APH stock performance.
Keysight's AI data-center test-equipment thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Keysight's AI data-center networking test-equipment exposure, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year KEYS stock performance.
Lumentum's AI data-center optics story is real — but the SpaceX edge is still inferred
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Lumentum's AI data-center optics/photonics exposure, SpaceX evidence boundaries, and one-year LITE stock performance.
The bottleneck for AI isn't chips anymore — it's gigawatts. And the power deals are now in SEC filings
Oracle's June 10 earnings printed a $638B backlog and a $90B+ capex plan, then the stock fell ~10% on one question: where does the power come from? We map the AI power constraint through SEC filings — named gigawatt offtake deals (DTE/Oracle 1.4 GW, DTE/Google 1 GW, Amazon's 3.8 GW added, Talen's nuclear fleet) and the cost-allocation mechanism utilities are filing — with evidence labels throughout.
The memory shortage made Micron rich. Now watch who pays — the bill is starting to show up in the filings
DRAM contract prices are up 58–63% and NAND 70–75% in a single quarter — the worst memory squeeze in 15 years. The winner (Micron) is obvious. The second-order story is who absorbs the cost: server OEMs, system builders and PC makers. We trace the squeeze through SEC filings — Super Micro's component-pricing risk language, supplier concentration, and the downstream cost pass-through — and label what's confirmed vs inferred.
We mapped the AI supply chain from SEC filings — free, and now you can search it
EvidInvest's supply-chain maps are live and free: 550+ companies, 836 relationships, 93% traced to a filing or cited source. Plus a fresh layer — the power-delivery chain that physically feeds every AI rack, from SiC substrates to the chips on NVIDIA's boards.
SpaceX prices the largest IPO in history tonight. Here's what the S-1 says — and what it changes for the supply-chain map
SPCX lists June 12 at a $1.75T valuation. We break down the S-1 financials — Starlink's 63% EBITDA margin, xAI's $12.7B capex, 94× revenue — and update our SEC-evidence supply-chain map with the EchoStar node Aether surfaced.
Who actually supplies SpaceX? A data-driven map of the Starlink economy
We searched SEC filings and earnings transcripts with Aether to find the public companies inside SpaceX's supply chain and Starlink's customer base — then ran the financials on every name. AMD, Graham Corp, Amphenol, United Airlines and more.
Marvell is becoming an AI data-center interconnect company: what the filings confirm
Aether SEC filing analysis of Marvell Technology's AI data-center exposure, interconnect products, customer concentration, fabless supply-chain risks, and evidence boundaries.
AAOI's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Applied Optoelectronics' AI data-center optical transceivers, hyperscale customer evidence, SpaceX boundary, and one-year AAOI stock performance.
Astera Labs (ALAB): the AI rack connectivity thesis, without the SpaceX overclaim
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Astera Labs' AI data-center PCIe/CXL/Ethernet connectivity exposure, customer concentration, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year ALAB stock performance.
AMD's AI upside after a 345% run: what the filings confirm
Aether's SEC-first read of AMD: Data Center growth, OpenAI and Meta warrant-backed demand signals, supplier-chain dependencies, and valuation after a sharp one-year rerating.
ARM after a 224% run: what the SEC filings confirm about AI infrastructure
Aether's SEC-first read of Arm: AI infrastructure exposure, royalty/licensing economics, customer concentration, supply-chain dependencies, and valuation boundaries after a sharp one-year rerating.
Broadcom's AI infrastructure thesis is now visible in the filings
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Broadcom's AI infrastructure revenue exposure, Google/Anthropic customer evidence, supply-chain dependencies, and one-year AVGO stock performance.
Ciena's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Ciena's AI data-center optics exposure, SpaceX evidence boundaries, and one-year CIEN stock performance.
Coherent (COHR) Deep Dive: The AI Optics Profitability Turn, NVIDIA's Co-Packaged Bet, and the SpaceX Boundary
A deep-dive, SEC-backed analysis of Coherent: the Q3 FY2026 margin inflection, the $2B NVIDIA private placement and co-packaged-optics collaboration, the 800G to 1.6T transceiver engine, why the mechanical valuation model breaks on COHR, and the exact boundary of the SpaceX/Starlink story.
Credo's AI data-center connectivity thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC-backed CRDO analysis: AI data-center connectivity exposure, Microsoft and Amazon evidence, optical/electrical interconnect positioning, SpaceX boundary, and one-year stock performance.
Cisco's AI data-center connectivity thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Cisco's AI data-center networking, coherent optics via Acacia, hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year CSCO stock performance.
Fabrinet's AI data-center optics thesis is strong — but SpaceX is not confirmed
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Fabrinet's AI data-center optics exposure, NVIDIA/Cisco customer concentration, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year FN stock performance.
Corning's AI data-center optics thesis: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Corning's AI data-center fiber, optical connectivity, hyperscale customer evidence, SpaceX boundary, and one-year GLW stock performance.
Micron's AI memory cycle is now visible in the filings
Aether and SEC filing analysis of Micron's AI memory cycle, customer concentration, HBM supply-chain bottlenecks, and evidence boundaries for MU.
NVIDIA's AI infrastructure story after a 63% run: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filing analysis of NVIDIA's AI infrastructure exposure, Data Center growth, customer concentration, supplier dependencies, and one-year NVDA stock performance.
Oracle's AI infrastructure backlog: what the filings confirm
Aether's SEC-first analysis of Oracle's AI infrastructure backlog: OCI growth, RPO expansion, customer demand signals, GPU/data-center dependencies, and past-year ORCL performance.
SMCI's AI infrastructure boom: what the filings confirm
Aether and SEC filings show SMCI's AI infrastructure growth, customer concentration, supplier dependencies, margin pressure, and volatile one-year stock performance.
VIAVI's AI data-center signal is test and measurement, not a SpaceX customer claim
Aether and SEC filing analysis of VIAVI's AI data-center optical/network test exposure, SpaceX evidence boundary, and one-year VIAV stock performance.
Sivers Semiconductors and the AI Photonics Supply Chain Thesis
Aether-backed research on Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE), Ayar Labs, O-Net, POET, WIN and the external-laser/CPO supply chain behind AI data centers.
When MPT Breaks: What 3 Market Crises Reveal About Portfolio Theory
In 2008, stock correlations spiked to 0.84. In 2020, they hit 0.68. We ran the numbers on how MPT portfolios actually performed through 3 major crises — and what it means for how you build your portfolio today.
Visa Put an MCP Server in Its Annual Report — And Finance Is About to Change Forever
Visa's FY2025 10-K explicitly discloses an MCP server. CrowdStrike's 10-K flags MCP security risks. These are audited annual disclosures, not press releases. Here's what it means for the future of finance AI.
The AI Chokepoint Nobody Talks About: How TSMC Became the World's Most Systemically Important Company
Every major AI chip — NVIDIA Blackwell, AMD MI300, Apple M4, Google TPU — is manufactured at one company's fabs in Taiwan. We map the AI supply chain concentration risk and run a fair value analysis on TSM.
From Ticker to Fair Value in 60 Seconds: Using EvidInvest's get_growth_trajectory MCP Tool
A step-by-step tutorial for AI builders using Claude or Cursor. Learn to call the get_growth_trajectory tool, read the five EPS trajectory shapes, and compare NVDA vs INTC — two companies at opposite ends of the spectrum.
META Platforms Intrinsic Value 2026: Revenue Hit $200B — So Why Is EPS Flat?
META grew revenue 22% to $201B in FY2025, but EPS barely moved ($23.49 vs $23.86 in FY2024). We explain why that's misleading, run the DCF bear/base/bull analysis at current prices, and make the case that the market is pricing the wrong story.
The DCF Verdict on AI Datacenter Stocks: Why NVDA, AVGO, and SMCI Valuations Diverge by 1,000%
We ran three valuation methods on NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Super Micro using real historical CAGRs, a normalized growth model, and Wall Street consensus. The outputs differ by up to 1,000%. Here is why — and what it tells you.
Mag 7 Carries Q1 2026 Again — The Concentration Trade Is Back
S&P 500 beat rate hit 84% in Q1 2026. But strip out the Magnificent 7 and index earnings growth drops from +11% to +3.5%. What this means for your diversified portfolio.
How to Read SEC Filings During a Geopolitical Shock
When a Taiwan strait headline drops, most investors panic. We built a supply chain graph from 557 real SEC filing edges to show you exactly which paragraph to read — and which chokepoints actually matter.
AI & Data Center Earnings Season: The $520B Capex Reality Check
Intel surges on a revenue beat, AMD rallies ahead of its report, and NVIDIA looms. We break down the Q1 2026 semiconductor earnings with real data -- what's reported, what's coming, and what the valuations say.
Build a Portfolio Automation Pipeline with AI: Stock Lists, Optimization, and Rebalancing via MCP
Use EvidInvest MCP to create stock lists, run MPT optimization, check valuations, and find rebalance candidates — all through natural language. No spreadsheets, no UI.
Financial MCP Servers Compared: Raw Data vs. Real Analysis
We compared 6 financial MCP servers for Claude. Most just wrap data APIs. Here is what happens when your AI agent gets pre-computed valuations, DCF models, and portfolio optimization instead of raw numbers.
Q1 2026 Earnings Season Kicks Off: Big Bank Scoreboard
Goldman Sachs beats by 7%, Citi profits surge 42%, JPMorgan posts $50B revenue. We break down the numbers, chart the volatility, and show what the valuations say.
We Ran MPT on the Top 100 US Stocks. Here is What We Found.
Sharpe ratio of 2.32. Expected return of 52%. We tested the math behind hedge-fund portfolio optimization on real US stocks — here is what it looks like in practice.
15 Years of MPT: How Portfolio Construction Beat the Market (With Real Data)
We ran Modern Portfolio Theory optimization across 3 different portfolio types — tech, healthcare, and diversified — over 15 years of real data. Here is what the math actually shows.
I Built a Magnificent 7 Dashboard in 10 Minutes Using EvidInvest MCP
Screener websites are dying. Here is how to build a live Mag7 comparison dashboard with 1-year performance, P/E, PEG, and growth metrics using EvidInvest MCP and a few tool calls.
Magnificent 7 in 2026: Which One Is Actually Cheap?
PEG ratios, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and analyst upside for all 7. The data shows two clear value plays, two fairly valued, and one in a category of its own.
Is NVDA Overvalued in 2026? A DCF Analysis
NVIDIA's stock has soared on AI demand. We run a DCF to find NVDA's intrinsic value in 2026 — and whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
How EvidInvest's Portfolio Optimizer Works: Markowitz, Max Sharpe, and Real Data
A plain-language explanation of Modern Portfolio Theory, how we implemented it with real price data and covariance shrinkage, and what the optimizer actually tells you — including its honest limitations.
Why Your Stock Score Might Be Lying to You
Stock scoring tools like Simply Wall St apply the same algorithm to banks, SaaS companies, and commodities miners. Here's why that's a problem — and what to look for instead.
What Is DCF Valuation? A Beginner Guide
Learn how Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis works, why investors use it, and how to calculate intrinsic value for any stock.