AI & Data Center Earnings Season: The $520B Capex Reality Check
Hyperscalers are set to spend over $520 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google have all guided capital expenditure higher, with data center buildouts absorbing the bulk. That is not a forecast -- those are committed budget numbers from the companies writing the checks.
But capex commitments are inputs. Earnings are the output. And right now, semiconductor earnings season is the market's reality check on whether the AI investment cycle is translating into actual revenue and profit growth for the companies building the chips, servers, and networking gear that make it all work.
Intel just reported Q1 results and the stock surged. AMD is up double digits ahead of its May 5 report. NVIDIA -- the most anticipated earnings event of the quarter -- reports May 28. Taiwan Semiconductor already delivered another beat. The data center supply chain is reporting in real time, and the numbers are telling a clear story.
We pulled the earnings data, growth rates, and valuations from the EvidInvest database. Here is what the numbers say.
Q1 2026 AI & Data Center Earnings Scoreboard
| Symbol | Price | Mkt Cap | Q1 EPS | Estimate | Result | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $201.68 | $4.90T | $1.75 (est) | $1.75 | May 28 | $78.4B (est) |
| AVGO | $406.54 | $1.93T | $2.05 | $2.03 | +1.0% | $19.3B (+30% YoY) |
| TSM | $370.50 | $1.92T | $3.50 | $3.31 | +5.7% | $36.0B (+33% YoY) |
| AMD | $278.39 | $454B | $1.27 (est) | $1.27 | May 5 | $9.8B (est) |
| INTC | $68.50 | $344B | -$0.73 | $0.01 | Rev +9.6% | $13.6B (+7% YoY) |
| MRVL | $139.69 | $122B | $0.80 | $0.79 | +1.3% | $2.22B (+42% YoY) |
| SMCI | $28.56 | $17.1B | $0.69 | $0.49 | +40.8% | $12.7B (+125% YoY) |
Five of the seven names in this group have already reported. Every one of them beat estimates. The two most anticipated -- AMD and NVIDIA -- are still to come. Here is the breakdown.
Post-Earnings: Intel Surges on Revenue Beat
Intel reported Q1 2026 results on April 23 and the stock surged. The headline GAAP EPS of -$0.73 looks ugly against the $0.01 consensus estimate, but the loss is driven by restructuring charges as CEO Lip-Bu Tan continues to reshape the company. The number that matters is on the top line: $13.58 billion in revenue, beating the $12.39 billion consensus by 9.6%.
That revenue beat is the third consecutive quarter of top-line outperformance. In Q4 2025, Intel delivered $13.67B versus $13.43B estimated. In Q3 2025, it was $13.65B versus $13.20B. The pattern is clear -- the market has been underestimating Intel's revenue trajectory for three straight quarters.
The turnaround under Tan is focused on two fronts: reviving the foundry business (Intel 18A process) and defending the data center CPU franchise against AMD's EPYC gains. Early signs on both are encouraging enough for the market to look past the one-time charges.
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | Revenue | Rev. Est. | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -$0.73 | $0.01 | $13.58B | $12.39B | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15 | $0.08 | $13.67B | $13.43B | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.23 | $0.02 | $13.65B | $13.20B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.10 | $0.01 | $12.86B | $11.98B | +7.3% |
Dig into Intel's full financial history on EvidInvest: Intel financials | Intel growth rates | Intel valuation.
Post-Earnings: TSM Delivers Another Beat
Taiwan Semiconductor reported Q1 2026 on April 16. EPS came in at $3.50 versus the $3.31 consensus -- a 5.7% beat. Revenue hit $35.98 billion against the $35.35 billion estimate. This is the sixth consecutive quarter of EPS beats for the world's most important chipmaker.
The numbers tell the story of a company riding the AI wave better than almost anyone. Revenue CAGR over the past year is 33%, and over three years it is 19.3%. EPS grew 47.9% year-over-year. TSMC's advanced node utilization remains at capacity as demand for 3nm and 5nm chips from NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom shows no signs of slowing.
At $370.50 and a $1.92 trillion market cap, TSMC is the second-largest semiconductor company in the world. The stock has compounded at a pace that reflects its role as the irreplaceable bottleneck in the AI supply chain.
Explore the full picture: TSM financials | TSM growth rates | TSM valuation.
Pre-Earnings Preview: AMD Reports May 5
AMD is the next major data center name to report, and the market is already pricing in optimism -- the stock is up over 10% ahead of the May 5 date. Consensus estimates call for $1.27 EPS on $9.84 billion in revenue.
Context matters here. AMD's Q4 2025 (reported February 3) was a clean beat: $1.53 EPS versus the $1.32 estimate (+15.9%), with revenue of $10.27B beating the $9.67B consensus by 6.2%. The data center GPU segment -- driven by MI300X and the newer MI350 -- has been the growth engine, and the market wants to see continued momentum.
| Quarter | EPS | Estimate | Beat/Miss | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 (est) | $1.27 | $1.27 | Pending | $9.84B (est) |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53 | $1.32 | +15.9% | $10.27B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.20 | $1.17 | +2.6% | $9.25B |
| Q2 2025 | $0.48 | $0.48 | +0.3% | $7.69B |
The growth trajectory is unmistakable: AMD revenue grew 34% year-over-year, and EPS surged 164% on an annual basis. The key question for Q1 is whether data center GPU revenue continues to accelerate or if the sequential decline from Q4's $10.27B to the estimated $9.84B reflects seasonal softness versus market share dynamics.
Run your own numbers: AMD financials | AMD growth rates | AMD valuation.
Pre-Earnings Preview: NVIDIA -- The Main Event
NVIDIA reports around May 28, and it remains the single most consequential earnings event for the AI trade. The stock sits at $201.68 with a $4.9 trillion market cap -- the largest semiconductor company on earth by a factor of 2.5x.
Consensus expects $1.75 EPS on $78.4 billion in revenue. To put that in perspective: NVIDIA generated $39.3 billion in revenue in Q4 FY2025 (one year ago). The Street is projecting the company to double its quarterly revenue in twelve months. And NVIDIA has beaten estimates for six straight quarters.
| Quarter | EPS | Estimate | Beat/Miss | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 (est) | $1.75 | $1.75 | May 28 | $78.4B (est) |
| Q4 FY2027 | $1.62 | $1.54 | +5.2% | $68.1B |
| Q3 FY2027 | $1.30 | $1.26 | +3.2% | $57.0B |
| Q2 FY2027 | $1.05 | $1.01 | +4.0% | $46.7B |
The growth numbers are staggering: 65.5% revenue growth year-over-year, 100% revenue CAGR over three years, and 66% EPS growth in the most recent fiscal year. Free cash flow CAGR over three years is 163%. No other company in the semiconductor space -- or arguably in any sector -- is compounding at this rate at this scale.
The key risks for the May 28 report center on Blackwell ramp execution, export restrictions to China (which have tightened further in 2026), and whether the Blackwell Ultra / Rubin product cycle can sustain the growth trajectory into FY2028. Commentary on hyperscaler demand visibility will be the most closely watched part of the call.
Explore NVIDIA's full data: NVIDIA financials | NVIDIA growth rates | NVIDIA valuation.
The Rest of the AI Data Center Supply Chain
Broadcom (AVGO) -- The Custom Silicon Leader
Broadcom reported Q1 FY2026 on March 5 with a modest beat: $2.05 EPS versus $2.03 estimated, and revenue of $19.31B versus $19.26B. The stock trades at $406.54 with a $1.93 trillion market cap, making it the second-largest semiconductor company globally.
Broadcom's AI story centers on custom ASICs for hyperscalers -- specifically Google's TPU and Meta's MTIA programs. Revenue grew 23.9% year-over-year, and the three-year CAGR of 24.4% reflects the VMware acquisition layering onto the organic AI silicon growth. EPS surged 287% on an annual basis as VMware synergies and AI revenue scale drove massive operating leverage.
The next report (Q2 FY2026) is expected June 4 with consensus at $2.35 EPS on $22.0B revenue.
AVGO financials | AVGO growth rates | AVGO valuation.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) -- Networking for the AI Cluster
Marvell reported Q4 FY2026 on March 5: $0.80 EPS versus $0.79 estimated, revenue of $2.22B versus $2.21B. The stock is at $139.69 with a $122B market cap.
Marvell is the picks-and-shovels networking play. Its custom AI accelerators and data center interconnect products are embedded in the fabric that connects GPU clusters. Revenue grew 42.1% year-over-year -- the second-fastest growth rate in this group after NVIDIA. The next report is expected in late May with consensus at $0.80 EPS on $2.40B revenue.
MRVL financials | MRVL growth rates | MRVL valuation.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -- The Server Integrator
Super Micro reported Q2 FY2025 on February 3 with a massive beat: $0.69 EPS versus $0.49 estimated (+40.8%), and revenue of $12.68B versus $10.42B estimated -- a 21.7% revenue surprise. The company has been one of the most volatile names in the AI trade, with revenue growth of 46.6% annually and a three-year revenue CAGR of 61.7%.
At $28.56 and a $17.1B market cap, SMCI trades at a fraction of its peers. The accounting concerns and delayed filings from 2024-2025 weighed heavily on the multiple, but the top-line growth is undeniable -- $12.68B in quarterly revenue from a company valued at $17B is a price-to-sales ratio that would make value investors take notice. The next report (Q3 FY2025) is expected around May 5 with consensus at $0.63 EPS.
SMCI financials | SMCI growth rates | SMCI valuation.
Growth Rate Comparison
How do these seven names stack up on fundamental growth? Here are the most recent annual figures from the EvidInvest database.
| Symbol | Rev. Growth 1Y | Rev. CAGR 3Y | Rev. CAGR 5Y | EPS Growth 1Y | FCF CAGR 3Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | +65.5% | +100.0% | +66.9% | +66.0% | +163.1% |
| SMCI | +46.6% | +61.7% | +45.8% | -11.5% | N/A |
| MRVL | +42.1% | +14.2% | +12.9% | N/M | +8.5% |
| AMD | +34.3% | +13.6% | +28.8% | +164.4% | +29.3% |
| TSM | +33.0% | +19.3% | +23.5% | +47.9% | +14.0% |
| AVGO | +23.9% | +24.4% | +21.7% | +286.6% | +18.1% |
| INTC | -0.5% | -5.7% | -7.5% | N/M | -14.3% |
The gap between NVIDIA and the rest is remarkable. A 100% three-year revenue CAGR at NVIDIA's scale is historically unprecedented in semiconductors. But the entire group (except Intel) is growing revenue at 20%+ annually -- this is a rising tide, not a single-stock story.
Intel stands out as the contrarian play. Revenue has declined for three straight years on a CAGR basis, and profitability remains challenged. But the stock's surge on the Q1 revenue beat suggests the market is starting to price in a turnaround. Whether you view INTC as a value trap or a turnaround story depends entirely on your conviction in the foundry strategy and the data center CPU recovery.
The Investment Angle: What Our DCF Models Say
Growth is one thing. Valuation is another. We ran our discounted cash flow models on these seven names to see which ones the market has gotten ahead of -- and which might still have room to run.
| Symbol | Price | P/E | DCF Fair Value | Implied Upside | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI | $28.56 | 48.8x | $211.27 | +640% | Deeply Undervalued |
| NVDA | $201.68 | 105.9x | $354.50 | +75.8% | Undervalued |
| AVGO | $406.54 | 220.7x | $586.05 | +44.1% | Undervalued |
| AMD | $278.39 | 233.7x | $212.91 | -23.5% | Overvalued |
| MRVL | $139.69 | 171.6x | -- | -- | Run Model |
| TSM | $370.50 | -- | -- | -- | Run Model |
| INTC | $68.50 | N/M | -- | -- | Run Model |
DCF fair values shown use EvidInvest's aggressive growth scenario. AMD uses our moderate scenario (three scenarios available). P/E ratios reflect trailing twelve months. Visit each stock's valuation page for conservative, moderate, and aggressive estimates.
The standout is SMCI at $28.56 versus a DCF fair value of $211. That is not a typo. The company is generating $12.68 billion in quarterly revenue at a $17 billion market cap -- a sub-0.4x price-to-sales ratio for a company growing revenue 47% annually. The deep discount reflects the accounting drama and delayed filings from 2024-2025, which crushed the multiple. If you believe the operational story is intact and the governance risk is behind them, the valuation gap is extraordinary.
NVIDIA at $201.68 trades at 106x earnings, but our DCF model still sees 76% upside. That sounds aggressive until you consider the growth: 66% revenue growth, 100% three-year CAGR, and $78 billion in expected quarterly revenue. At that earnings trajectory, the 106x PE compresses rapidly. The market is pricing in deceleration that has not yet appeared in the numbers.
AMD at $278.39 is the most stretched name in the group at 234x earnings. Our moderate DCF model puts fair value at $213 -- implying the stock is 24% overvalued at current prices. The aggressive scenario gets you to $319, still only 14% upside. AMD's growth is real (34% revenue, 164% EPS), but the pre-earnings rally has pulled the stock well ahead of what the cash flows justify. If you are long AMD, the Q1 report on May 5 needs to be a blowout to sustain this multiple.
Broadcom at $406.54 trades at 221x earnings but our model sees $586 fair value -- 44% upside. Like NVIDIA, the headline PE is misleading because the earnings trajectory (287% EPS growth) is compressing the multiple faster than the stock is rising.
For MRVL, TSM, and INTC, run the full DCF model yourself on EvidInvest to see where the numbers land: MRVL valuation | TSM valuation | INTC valuation.
Key Takeaways
The AI capex cycle is real, and it is showing up in earnings. Every company in this group that has reported beat estimates. Combined quarterly revenue across these seven names exceeds $100 billion. The hyperscaler spending commitments are not just announcements -- they are flowing through to semiconductor revenue and earnings.
NVIDIA is still the gravity well. At $4.9T, NVIDIA is larger than the next two semiconductor companies combined. The May 28 report will set the tone for the entire AI trade through the summer. A beat is expected -- the question is the magnitude and the forward guidance.
AMD's Q1 is the near-term catalyst. With the stock already up 10% ahead of May 5, a lot of good news is priced in. The bar is a $1.27 EPS and $9.84B revenue beat, plus continued data center GPU momentum. Any weakness in the forward outlook could trigger a sell-the-news reaction despite a headline beat.
Intel is the turnaround worth watching. Four straight quarters of revenue beats, a new CEO with a clear strategy, and a stock that is responding to real operational improvement. The path from here depends on execution in the foundry business and whether the data center CPU share loss to AMD stabilizes.
The supply chain is the real tell. TSMC, Broadcom, and Marvell all beat estimates, confirming that demand for AI silicon is broad-based and not concentrated in any single end customer. When the picks-and-shovels companies are all growing 20-40% annually, the infrastructure buildout is real.
Valuations are diverging sharply. Our DCF models flag SMCI, NVDA, and AVGO as undervalued relative to their cash flow trajectories -- while AMD at 234x earnings looks stretched even in an aggressive scenario. The market is not pricing this group as a monolith, and neither should you. Earnings growth is broad-based, but valuation discipline still matters.
What to Watch Next
May 5 -- AMD Q1 2026. The key metrics: data center GPU revenue trajectory, MI300/MI350 commentary, and full-year guidance. The stock's pre-earnings rally has raised the bar.
May 28 -- NVIDIA Q1 FY2027. The most important earnings event of the quarter. Watch for: Blackwell revenue ramp, data center revenue guidance, China export impact, and any signals on the Rubin product timeline.
June 4 -- Broadcom Q2 FY2026. Custom ASIC demand visibility and VMware integration progress. Consensus: $2.35 EPS on $22.0B revenue.
Run the Numbers Yourself
Every data point in this post comes from the EvidInvest financial database. You can access the same data -- and go deeper -- using our analysis tools:
- Earnings pages: See EPS beats/misses, revenue surprises, and historical trends for NVDA, AMD, INTC, and any other ticker
- DCF valuation: Run conservative, moderate, and aggressive scenarios for NVIDIA, AMD, or any stock
- Growth rates: Compare revenue, EPS, and free cash flow CAGRs across any company
- MCP tools: Connect EvidInvest data directly to Claude or other AI assistants for custom analysis workflows -- see our MCP integration guide
The best investment decisions are the ones backed by your own analysis, not someone else's headline.
Data sourced from company earnings releases, SEC filings, and EvidInvest's financial database as of April 24, 2026. Estimates reflect Wall Street consensus where noted. This is not investment advice -- always do your own due diligence.
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