Fair value · TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD (TSM) · updated 2026-09-07 · from 20-F FY2025
Everything below is unaffected: the filed statements, the filing they came from, and TSM’s growth history are all as reported.
20-F FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-04-16 · accession 0001628280-26-025362
Open this filing on sec.gov1.11
Put/Call (OI)
put-heavy
0.73
Put/Call (volume)
31%
ATM IV ~30d
$500
Call wall
73k OI
$400
Put wall
87k OI
As of previous close (2026-09-04) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning
At least two methods need a usable value to draw a range with these inputs.
No preset range for this company yet.
The two ranges are identical because every input sits on a preset.
We don’t tell you what TSM is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has TSM’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
N/A
Financials are filed in TWD; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
Financials are filed in TWD; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
Not solvable from the price — Financials are filed in TWD; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish. Showing preset inputs.
This method has no key input to read out of the price. The others below do, and you set them yourself: the growth matrix shows what TSM has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $1,349,452M | $1,199,087M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $1,816,363M | $1,434,131M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $2,444,825M | $1,715,248M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $3,290,734M | $2,051,470M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $4,429,328M | $2,453,597M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $4,960,847M | $2,441,824M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $5,556,149M | $2,430,108M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $6,222,887M | $2,418,447M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $6,969,633M | $2,406,843M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $7,805,989M | $2,395,294M |
Inputs from the filing
Financials are filed in TWD; our prices are in USD, so these methods need a conversion we do not yet publish.
20-F FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-04-16 · accession 0001628280-26-025362 · sec.gov
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