TSMC's Q3 revenue is already filed in NT dollars. The exchange rate writes the US-dollar headline.

Every figure below was read from TSMC's and ASML's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession. Guidance figures are the companies' own, furnished on Form 6-K, and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no market exchange rates, because none of them is filed. Conversions, shares of revenue, sums and break-even rates are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

TSMC $TSM is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday 15 October. We did not find that date in an SEC filing, so treat it as expected rather than filed.

Here is the unusual part. For most companies the quarter is a mystery until the print. TSMC files a revenue report on Form 6-K every month, and all three months of the quarter are already on EDGAR. What is not on EDGAR is the US-dollar number the headline will lead with, because that depends on one line in the July guidance that most previews skip: the exchange rate.

If you want a forecast, wrong page. Twelve lines already on file, each with its accession and the question it sets up.

1. The guide is in US dollars; the books are in NT dollars

From the second-quarter release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to the 6-K of 16 July (accession 0001046179-26-000451):

Revenue is expected to be between US$44.6 billion and US$45.8 billion; And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars, Gross profit margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%; Operating profit margin is expected to be between 56% and 58%.

(Ours: at the assumed 32, the revenue range is NT$1,427.2–1,465.6 billion.)

Check: whether the release restates the 32 assumption next to the result, and which currency leads the headline.

2. All three months are filed: NT$1,494.24 billion

TSMC's monthly revenue reports, each a 6-K:

September was "a decrease of 0.6 percent from August 2026 and an increase of 54.6 percent from September 2025" (0001046179-26-000680). (Ours: the quarter's sum is 17.6% above Q2's NT$1,270,381 million and 50.9% above the NT$989,918 million of July–September 2025, taken from the prior-year columns of the same three reports.) The sum sits NT$28.6 billion, or 2.0%, above the top of the guide converted at 32. (Ours.)

Check: reported Q3 net revenue in NT dollars against NT$1,494.24 billion.

3. The monthly sum has reconciled before

Is a sum of monthly reports a reliable preview of the quarterly statement? For the first half, yes. The July report gives January–July revenue of NT$2,872,064 million; less July's NT$467,580 million, that is NT$2,404,484 million for January–June. (Ours.) The board-approved six-month net sales in the 6-K of 11 August (0001046179-26-000536) are NT$2,404,483,690 thousand. The two agree to within rounding.

Check: the same reconciliation for the third quarter.

4. The rate that puts the headline inside the range

(Ours, on the filed NT$1,494,243 million and nothing else.) At the guided 32 NT$ per US$, Q3 revenue is US$46.70 billion, above the top of the US$44.6–45.8 billion range. The quarter lands inside the range only if TSMC's average rate for the quarter is between 32.63 and 33.50 NT$ per US$. At any average below 32.63, the US-dollar figure is above the top of the guide; at Q2's filed average of 31.60 (0001046179-26-000451, presentation, "Average Exchange Rate--USD/NTD"), it would be US$47.29 billion.

We are not quoting a market rate here, because none is filed. The point is narrower: the NT dollar revenue is fixed, and the US-dollar headline is now a function of one number TSMC will print on its income-statement slide.

Check: the average exchange rate line on the Q3 presentation, before the revenue line.

5. The same rate moves the margins the other way

The margin guide is "based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars". The FY2025 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-025362) puts a size on it:

For example, every 1% depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the NT dollar would result in an approximately 0.3 percentage point decrease in our operating margin based on our 2025 results.

So the rate pulls revenue and margin in opposite directions: a weaker US dollar raises the US-dollar revenue figure (line 4) and lowers the NT-dollar margins. For reference, Q2 printed a 67.7% gross margin and 60.3% operating margin against guides of 65.5–67.5% and 56.5–58.5%, at an average rate of 31.60 against a guided 31.7 (0001046179-26-000451). The Q3 guide midpoints sit 1.7 and 3.3 points below those Q2 results. (Ours.)

Check: whether the release attributes any margin change to the exchange rate, and by how much.

6. The hedge book is in the monthly report

The September 6-K (0001046179-26-000680) also reports derivatives. For TSMC itself, forward contracts not under hedge accounting: outstanding notional NT$242,564,986 thousand, cumulative realised loss of NT$5,735,632 thousand for January–September. The Q2 financial statements (0001046179-26-000541) state that "substantially all the Company's sales are denominated in U.S. dollars", and that a hypothetical adverse 10% exchange-rate change "would have decreased its net income by NT$1,429,244 thousand" for the first half, after hedges. That sensitivity covers monetary assets and liabilities, not revenue.

Check: foreign-exchange gains or losses in non-operating items. Q2's non-operating items were NT$95.83 billion against NT$28.83 billion in Q1 (0001046179-26-000451).

7. HPC is 65% of revenue

The Q2 financial statements disaggregate revenue by platform (0001046179-26-000541, Note 20):

(Ours: HPC was 60.1% of the year-ago quarter's NT$933,791,869 thousand.) The platform chart in the July presentation is an image; the filed table is in the August statements.

Check: the HPC share, and whether smartphone moves seasonally into the third quarter.

8. 2nm arrived at 3% of wafer revenue

From the same note: 2-nanometer wafer revenue of NT$31,934,248 thousand in Q2, against nil a year earlier; 3-nanometer NT$320,558,574 thousand; 5-nanometer NT$350,112,503 thousand. The July release rounds those to 3%, 30% and 33% of wafer revenue, and "advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 77%" (0001046179-26-000451). Wafers were 84.5% of total revenue. (Ours: NT$1,073,707,321 thousand of NT$1,270,380,250 thousand.)

Check: the 2nm share. A new node usually weighs on gross margin in its first year; the 20-F says gross margin "would be negatively impacted in the year when a new technology is introduced".

9. Three-quarters of revenue is billed to US-headquartered customers

Geography, by where the customer is headquartered, Q2 2026 (0001046179-26-000541): United States NT$970,894,218 thousand, China NT$76,730,473 thousand, Taiwan NT$79,315,268 thousand, Japan NT$45,441,332 thousand, Europe, the Middle East and Africa NT$50,604,544 thousand. (Ours: the US share is 76.4%, up from 74.3% a year earlier; China is 6.0%, down from 9.4%, and China revenue fell 12.1% year on year while total revenue rose 36.0%.)

Check: the China line. It fell while everything else grew.

10. Capex: US$52–56 billion in the 20-F, NT$846.76 billion spent by June

The 20-F (0001628280-26-025362): "our capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, which, depending on market conditions, may be adjusted later." The July release and presentation we read do not restate a 2026 capex figure.

Cash-flow slide (0001046179-26-000451): capital expenditures of NT$350.76 billion in Q1 and NT$496.00 billion in Q2. (Ours: NT$846.76 billion in the half, about US$26.8 billion at Q2's 31.60 average, or 48–52% of the range.) On 11 August the board approved capital appropriations of "approximately US$29,442.50 million" (0001046179-26-000536); the month-end 6-K of 24 September (0001046179-26-000660) splits it into US$16,035 million for advanced-technology machinery, US$4,791 million for advanced packaging, mature and specialty, and US$8,616 million for real estate and leased assets.

Check: whether the 2026 range is restated, narrowed or moved.

11. Full year: "slightly above 40%" in dollars, 41.1% in NT dollars so far

The Q2 presentation's outlook slide (0001046179-26-000451): "2026 revenue to increase by slightly above 40% in US dollar terms". The September report (0001046179-26-000680): January–September revenue of NT$3,898.73 billion, "an increase of 41.1 percent compared to the same period in 2025." Those two numbers are in different currencies. The difference between them is, again, the exchange rate.

Check: whether the full-year outlook is restated in US-dollar terms, and at what assumed rate.

12. One ADS is five shares, and the per-ADR figure carries a rate

The 20-F: "each ADS represents five (5) common shares". Q2 diluted EPS was NT$27.25, or "US$4.31 per ADR unit" (0001046179-26-000451). (Ours: 27.25 × 5 ÷ 4.31 = 31.61, the Q2 average rate of 31.60 within rounding.) The 11 August board resolution (0001046179-26-000536) declared a NT$7.0 per-share dividend for Q2, ex-dividend 10 December, and for the first time gives foreign shareholders investing under Taiwan's overseas-investment regulations "the option to receive cash dividends in U.S. dollars."

Check: the per-ADR EPS figure and the rate it implies. If you compare TSMC's Taipei and New York lines, the ratio is five, and both sides of that arithmetic are filed.

The supply side: ASML's guide is filed; its result is not yet

ASML's third-quarter 6-K was not on EDGAR when we checked at 04:30 UTC on 14 October; the newest ASML quarterly 6-K was July's (accession 0001628280-26-048235). Its guide:

We expect third-quarter 2026 total net sales between €11.0 billion and €12.0 billion, with a gross margin between 55% and 57%.

For the year, ASML "now expects 2026 total net sales to be between €43 billion and €45 billion". (Ours: Q1 and Q2 net sales of €8,767 million and €9,326 million total €18,093 million, leaving €24.9–26.9 billion for the second half; after the Q3 guide, that implies €12.9–15.9 billion for Q4.) The same release says ASML plans "to add 30% to our 2026 low NA EUV capacity of around 65 for 2027", and the same for DUV immersion capacity of around 130.

For TSMC's print, the link runs through capex. ASML's release describes a company that "provides chipmakers with hardware, software and services to mass produce the patterns of integrated circuits", and TSMC's 20-F notes that over half of its capex is denominated in currencies other than the NT dollar, "primarily in U.S. dollars, Euros and Japanese yen". We will read ASML's result back against this guide once its 6-K is on EDGAR.

Check: ASML's Q3 net sales against €11.0–12.0 billion, and whether the 2026 range moves.

What to read first on Thursday

Not the US-dollar revenue figure. Read the average exchange rate line on the income-statement slide, then NT-dollar net revenue against NT$1,494.24 billion. Those two numbers determine the headline before anyone reads a word about chips. Then the margin lines, against a guide written at 32, with the 20-F's 0.3-point rule beside them.

For the history behind this quarter, our 16 July note on the Q2 print and the 12 July preview cover the guide as it was set.

Run it yourself

Start with the documents. /filings/TSM lists TSMC's 6-Ks, including the three monthly revenue reports, and /financials/TSM holds the standardised statements with their quarterly history. Open the September report, add the three monthly figures, and divide by the rate on Thursday's slide. That is lines 2 and 4 above, and it takes two minutes.

/earnings/TSM carries the filed quarterly series, and /valuation/TSM lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers. Then write down what you expect before the print. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you already wrote — the US$44.6–45.8 billion guide, the 32 assumption, 65% HPC, a 6.0% China share, US$52–56 billion of capex — and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

TSMC's third quarter is already filed in NT dollars. On Thursday, one exchange rate turns it into a headline.

Sources. TSMC Form 6-K of 16 July 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q2 release and Q3 guidance) and Exhibit 99.2 (presentation): accession 0001046179-26-000451 (sec.gov). Monthly revenue reports, Form 6-K: July 0001046179-26-000471, August 0001046179-26-000658, September 0001046179-26-000680 (sec.gov). Board resolutions of 11 August 2026: 0001046179-26-000536. Q2 2026 consolidated financial statements: 0001046179-26-000541 (sec.gov). Month-end report of 24 September 2026: 0001046179-26-000660. FY2025 Form 20-F: 0001628280-26-025362 (sec.gov). ASML Form 6-K of 15 July 2026: 0001628280-26-048235 (sec.gov). TSMC's report date is expected, not filed. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, market exchange rate, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, shares of revenue, conversions, break-even rates and implied figures are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.