TSMC printed US$46.72 billion at 31.98 NT dollars. The exchange rate we said to read first barely moved.

Every figure below was read from TSMC's and ASML's own filings on sec.gov and is cited with its accession. Guidance figures are the companies' own, furnished on Form 6-K, and are labelled as company guidance. We show no analyst estimates, no consensus and no market exchange rates, because none of them is filed, and nothing from the earnings calls, which are not filings either. Conversions, shares, sums and changes the companies do not print are our arithmetic on filed values and are marked (Ours.) Research, not investment advice.

On Wednesday we listed twelve lines from TSMC $TSM's filings and told you which one to read first: the average exchange rate, because the NT-dollar revenue was already on EDGAR and the US-dollar headline would be that sum divided by one number.

TSMC furnished its third-quarter results on Form 6-K on 15 October (accession 0001046179-26-000726). The rate came in at 31.98 NT dollars to the US dollar, against an assumption of 32. So the line we flagged as the swing factor did almost nothing. The headline landed above the guide anyway, and the reason was in the monthly reports all along.

Here is each of the twelve lines, read back, in the order we set them up. If you only have two minutes, read lines 2 and 4, then the new guide.

1. The guide, and where the quarter landed

From the Q3 presentation (Exhibit 99.2 to 0001046179-26-000726), against the July guide in 0001046179-26-000451:

(Ours: revenue is US$0.92 billion, or 2.0%, above the top of the range. Gross margin sits 0.4 points above the midpoint; operating margin is 0.7 points above the top.)

The release repeats the guide's structure without the old assumption: it states the result, then a new guide "based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 31.8 NT dollars".

2. NT$1,494.24 billion, to the million

The release: "consolidated revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion". The results table in the same exhibit gives net sales of NT$1,494,243 million. The three monthly revenue 6-Ks (July 0001046179-26-000471, August 0001046179-26-000658, September 0001046179-26-000680) summed to NT$1,494,243 million. (Ours: a difference of zero.)

The growth rates TSMC prints are the ones the monthly sums already gave: "third quarter revenue increased 50.9%" year on year and the quarter "represented a 17.6% increase in revenue" over the second quarter.

3. The monthly sum reconciled again

In the first half, the January–July cumulative figure less July matched the board-approved six-month net sales to within rounding. For the third quarter the match is exact, line 2 above. Two quarters running, the three monthly reports have told you the quarter's NT-dollar revenue before the print. The 6-K notes that the "3Q2026 figures have not been approved by Board of Directors", so the board-approved figures come later, as they did for Q2 on 11 August (0001046179-26-000536).

4. The rate: 31.98, and it did not decide the headline

Our pre-print arithmetic: at the guided 32, NT$1,494,243 million is US$46.70 billion, already above the top of the range; the quarter would have landed inside the range only at an average rate between 32.63 and 33.50. The filed rate was 31.98. (Ours: 1,494,243 ÷ 31.98 = US$46.72 billion, the figure TSMC prints.)

So the US-dollar figure exceeded the guide for the reason line 2 showed in September: the NT-dollar revenue was 2.0% above the top of the guide converted at 32 before the quarter closed. The exchange rate moved the headline by about US$0.03 billion. (Ours: 46.72 at 31.98 against 46.70 at 32.)

Against the second quarter, the rate did matter. The presentation shows the average rate at 31.98 against 31.60, "+1.2%", meaning a stronger US dollar. NT-dollar revenue rose 17.6% quarter on quarter; US-dollar revenue "increased 16.2% from the previous quarter".

5. Margins: inside one range, above the other

"Gross margin for the quarter was 66.4%, operating margin was 58.7%, and net profit margin was 51.1%." Both are below the second quarter's 67.7% and 60.3%: the presentation shows "-1.3 ppts" and "-1.6 ppts".

The 20-F's rule of thumb (0001628280-26-025362) is that "every 1% depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the NT dollar would result in an approximately 0.3 percentage point decrease in our operating margin". (Ours: 31.98 against the assumed 32 is a 0.06% move, worth about 0.02 points by that rule. The exchange rate does not explain the gap between the operating margin and its guide.) The release gives no attribution of the margin change, and we do not supply one.

Operating expenses were NT$116.43 billion, up 17.6% on the quarter, the same rate as revenue.

6. The hedge book: non-operating items fell to NT$34.59 billion

Non-operating items were NT$34.59 billion, against NT$95.83 billion in the second quarter, "-63.9%". That is the line where foreign-exchange gains and losses sit, but the presentation does not split it. The September monthly report's derivative table remains the latest filed view of the forward contracts; the October report will update it. (Ours: income before tax rose 5.6% on the quarter while income from operations rose 14.3%; net income rose 8.0%.)

7. HPC: 68% of revenue

The platform slide in Exhibit 99.2 is an image; we read it on sec.gov. It shows HPC at 68%, smartphone at 21%, IoT 4%, automotive 4%, digital consumer electronics 1% and others 2%. Growth by platform, quarter on quarter: HPC +22%, smartphone +10%, IoT +5%, automotive +23%, digital consumer electronics -12%, others -10%.

In the Q2 financial statements HPC was 65.4% of revenue (Ours, from Note 20 of 0001046179-26-000541). Smartphone grew 10% in the quarter, more slowly than HPC, and its share went from 22.3% to 21%.

8. 2nm: from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue

"In the third quarter, shipments of 2-nanometer accounted for 8% of total wafer revenue; 3-nanometer accounted for 33%; 5-nanometer accounted for 28%; and 7-nanometer accounted for 10%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 79% of total wafer revenue."

Our pre-print note quoted the 20-F: gross margin "would be negatively impacted in the year when a new technology is introduced". 2nm went from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue and gross margin fell 1.3 points in the same quarter; the filings do not say how much of one explains the other. For the fourth quarter the CFO's quoted outlook names "the steep ramp-up of our 2-nanometer technology".

Volume is the other half. Shipments were 4,476 thousand 12-inch-equivalent wafers, up 3.2% on the quarter, while revenue rose 17.6%. (Ours: revenue per 12-inch-equivalent wafer shipped rose from about NT$293,000 to about NT$334,000, or 13.9%; revenue includes non-wafer items, so this is a rough mix gauge.)

9. Geography: not in the results 6-K

Neither the release nor the presentation has a revenue-by-geography table. In the second quarter it came from the consolidated financial statements (0001046179-26-000541), a separate 6-K. The 76.4% US share and 6.0% China share in our preview are Q2 figures. Until TSMC furnishes the third-quarter statements, the China line we flagged has no third-quarter value on file.

10. Capex: NT$443.21 billion, and no restated 2026 range

The cash-flow slide shows capital expenditures of NT$443.21 billion in the third quarter, against NT$496.00 billion in the second, and free cash flow of NT$476.56 billion, defined as "Cash from operating activities – Capital expenditures" (NT$919.77 billion less NT$443.21 billion). Neither exhibit restates the 20-F's 2026 range of US$52–56 billion.

(Ours: January–September capex is NT$1,289.97 billion. Converting the first half at Q2's 31.60 and the third quarter at 31.98 gives about US$40.7 billion, or 73–78% of the range; the range would leave about US$11.3–15.3 billion for the fourth quarter.) That conversion is ours, at mixed rates; TSMC does not report capex in US dollars quarterly.

11. Full year: "around 44%", up from "slightly above 40%"

The outlook slide now reads "2026 revenue to increase by around 44% in US dollar terms", against "slightly above 40%" in July. The fourth-quarter guide:

Revenue is expected to be between US$52.3 billion and US$54.3 billion; And, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 31.8 NT dollars, Gross profit margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%; Operating profit margin is expected to be between 56.5% and 58.5%.

(Ours: at the assumed 31.8, the revenue range is NT$1,663.1–1,726.7 billion, 11.3–15.6% above the third quarter's NT$1,494.24 billion. In US dollars the range is 11.9–16.2% above US$46.72 billion.) The new assumption of 31.8 is a weaker US dollar than the 31.98 just printed, so the same rule from line 5 applies to the fourth-quarter margins.

12. Per ADR: US$4.60, and the rate inside it

Diluted EPS was "NT$29.43 (US$4.60 per ADR unit)", on 25,932 million weighted average shares. (Ours: 29.43 × 5 ÷ 4.60 = 31.99, the quarter's 31.98 average within rounding.) Net income was NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7% year on year. The presentation's recap of recent events lists the NT$7.00 second-quarter dividend, ex-dividend 10 December; the results 6-K does not declare a third-quarter dividend.

The supply side: ASML, read against its own guide

ASML furnished its third-quarter results on Form 6-K on 14 October (accession 0001628280-26-065813). Against the July guide in 0001628280-26-048235:

(Ours: nine-month net sales of €29,755.4 million plus the Q4 range gives €43.96–44.96 billion, which is the new full-year range. Our pre-print arithmetic left €12.9–15.9 billion for Q4; the new guide narrows that to €14.2–15.2 billion.)

Three filed lines bear on TSMC's capex:

• Units. ASML sold 113 new and 8 used lithography systems in the quarter, against 86 and 5 in the second quarter.
• Capacity. "We now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers," and ASML is "investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated."
• Horizon. "Some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030."

Two lines to read with care. Net income of €4,960 million includes a €509.7 million gain on equity investments, a line that was nil a year earlier (Exhibit 99.3). And the release gives no bookings figure; its statement on demand is the sentence about "order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year". Installed Base Management sales were €3,289 million, which the release says "came in above guidance". ASML bought back "around €4.1 billion" of shares in the quarter.

The two companies also name each other. ASML's presentation and TSMC's recap slide both list the 8 September initiative on large-format photomasks for High NA EUV.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley filed on 13 and 14 October, not 15; their quarters are in our six-bank read-back.

What moved, and what to read next

Of the twelve lines, three moved: the full-year outlook (line 11), the 2nm share (line 8) and the HPC share (line 7). One we expected to move did not: the exchange rate (line 4). The line that decided the headline was line 2, the monthly sum, which was filed before the quarter ended.

For the fourth quarter the same method works. When TSMC furnishes its October revenue report on Form 6-K, compare it with the guide: at 31.8, the quarter needs NT$1,663.1–1,726.7 billion. (Ours.) One month in, you can already see where it is heading.

Run it yourself

Start with the documents. /filings/TSM lists TSMC's 6-Ks, the results report and the monthly revenue reports, and /financials/TSM holds the standardised statements with their quarterly history. /earnings/TSM carries the filed quarterly series, and /valuation/TSM lets you run your own valuation on filed numbers.

Then write down the lines you will hold TSMC to: the US$52.3–54.3 billion guide, the 31.8 assumption, 8% 2nm, 68% HPC, around 44% for the year. Our Thesis Monitor reads each new filing against what you wrote and tells you which of them moved. If you work inside an agent, the same filings are on the EvidInvest MCP server. It is free to start, credit packs from $10, and there is no subscription.

The first step takes two minutes: when the October revenue report lands, divide it by 31.8 and set it against a third of the guide.

Sources. TSMC Form 6-K of 15 October 2026, Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 release and Q4 guidance) and Exhibit 99.2 (presentation): accession 0001046179-26-000726 (sec.gov). TSMC Form 6-K of 16 July 2026 (Q2 release and Q3 guidance): 0001046179-26-000451. Monthly revenue reports, Form 6-K: July 0001046179-26-000471, August 0001046179-26-000658, September 0001046179-26-000680. Q2 2026 consolidated financial statements: 0001046179-26-000541. FY2025 Form 20-F: 0001628280-26-025362. ASML Form 6-K of 14 October 2026, Exhibits 99.1–99.3: 0001628280-26-065813 (sec.gov); ASML Form 6-K of 15 July 2026: 0001628280-26-048235. The TSMC platform shares are read from an image slide in Exhibit 99.2. No analyst estimate, consensus figure, market exchange rate, price target or call remark appears on this page. Sums, shares, conversions and changes are arithmetic on those filed values, labelled as ours where they appear. Research, not investment advice.