PepsiCo reports tomorrow. Watch one filed number: whether people are buying more chips, or just paying more for them.

PepsiCo reports second-quarter results on Wednesday, July 9. The stock has spent a year as everyone's favorite fallen staple, and tomorrow's print will be spun hard in both directions. So before the spin: here is what PepsiCo actually filed in its last two SEC-filed results releases (April 16, 2026 and February 3, 2026), and the specific numbers that grade tomorrow's quarter.

The one number: convenient-foods volume

For roughly two years the PepsiCo story was pricing doing all the lifting while volumes sagged — the classic late-cycle staples problem. The filed fourth-quarter 2025 numbers still showed it: PepsiCo Foods North America organic revenue slightly negative, with convenient-foods volume down 1 percent.

Then the first quarter turned. The April filing shows PepsiCo Foods North America back to volume growth — convenient foods up 1 percent, with management crediting "innovation and affordability initiatives" that "began to take hold." Beverages volume trends also improved sequentially and year over year.

That is the entire thesis in one line item. If tomorrow's filing shows North America foods volume growing again — a second consecutive quarter — the affordability strategy is a trend, not a blip, and the pricing-fatigue narrative loses its anchor. If volume slips back negative, Q1 was a promotional sugar high and the story resets.

The headline number will flatter. Read the decomposition.

Q1 reported net revenue grew 8.5 percent — but the filing itself decomposes that into 3.4 points of foreign-exchange tailwind, 2.5 points net from acquisitions and divestitures, and just 2.6 percent organic growth. Reported EPS grew 27 percent; core EPS grew 9; core constant-currency EPS grew 5.

Expect the same gap tomorrow. The dollar has kept the FX tailwind alive, so the reported line will likely look hot. The filed organic number and the constant-currency EPS are where the actual business lives. Anyone quoting the reported figure without the decomposition is selling something.

International is the quiet strength: the Q1 filing shows organic growth of 7 percent in Europe/Middle East/Africa, 7 percent in Asia Pacific foods, 5 percent in international beverages, with every international segment accelerating sequentially. North America is the turnaround story, but international is what has been paying for it.

Guidance: affirmed twice, tested again

Management affirmed fiscal 2026 guidance with the Q1 print ("we are affirming fiscal 2026 financial guidance"), after setting it in the February filing. Q1 also delivered operating margin expansion of 210 basis points reported (10 basis points core), driven by productivity savings — the cost program funding the affordability investments.

The scorecard for tomorrow: convenient-foods volume positive again or not; organic growth at or above the Q1's 2.6 percent; core constant-currency EPS growth holding mid-single digits; guidance affirmed a third time. Hit all four and the turnaround compounds quietly. Miss the volume line and everything else is noise management.

PepsiCo's live valuation, dividend history, and peer multiples are on the PepsiCo valuation page, and you can stress-test what a durable 2–3 percent organic grower with margin expansion is worth in the DCF calculator.

Sources

PepsiCo first-quarter 2026 results, SEC-filed press release, April 16, 2026: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77476/000007747626000019/q120268-kxexhibit991.htm. Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results with fiscal 2026 guidance, February 3, 2026: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77476/000007747626000009/q420258-kxexhibit991.htm. Filing excerpts retrieved and verified via Aether's SEC index.

Research, not investment advice.