High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Fair Value Range
Bear Case (25th pct.)
$113.78
-58.0% vs price
Base Case (Median)
$175.64
-35.2% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
$293.14
8.2% vs price
$113.78$175.64$293.14
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
Method Breakdown
Method
Est. Value
vs Price
Weight
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
$77.99
-71.2%
High (40%)
PE Comparable
$495.90
83.1%
Medium (25%)
Graham Number
$125.72
-53.6%
Low (10%)
EV/EBITDA
$225.56
-16.7%
Medium (20%)
Interpretation
Based on 4 out of 8 methods, ALX appears fairly valued at the current price of $270.85. The base case fair value of $175.64 implies 35.2% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.
