ASML Holding N.V.
High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-87.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-80.3% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-63.2% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $102.68 | -93.8% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $699.39 | -57.6% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $1012.13 | -38.7% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $176.74 | -89.3% | Low (10%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $325.46 | -80.3% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $514.59 | -68.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $245.43 | -85.1% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, ASMLF appears overvalued at the current price of $1650.32. The base case fair value of $325.46 implies 80.3% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.