High uncertainty:The valuation methods show significant disagreement (>100% spread). Treat the range as a rough guide rather than a precise estimate.
Fair Value Range
Bear Case (25th pct.)
$4.16
-53.6% vs price
Base Case (Median)
$6.62
-26.2% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
$11.44
27.5% vs price
$4.16$6.62$11.44
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
Method Breakdown
Method
Est. Value
vs Price
Weight
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
$1.71
-80.9%
High (40%)
EV/EBITDA
$6.62
-26.2%
Medium (20%)
EV/FCF
$16.27
81.3%
Medium (20%)
Interpretation
Based on 3 out of 8 methods, ASUR appears fairly valued at the current price of $8.97. The base case fair value of $6.62 implies 26.2% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.
