Caterpillar Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-69.2% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-63.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-49.6% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $255.66 | -70.7% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $388.95 | -55.5% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $541.43 | -38.0% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $143.76 | -83.5% | High (80%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $318.44 | -63.5% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $490.89 | -43.8% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $282.40 | -67.7% | High (70%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, CAT appears overvalued at the current price of $873.28. The base case fair value of $318.44 implies 63.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.