Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Bear Case (25th pct.)
-43.4% vs price
Base Case (Median)
-30.5% vs price
Bull Case (75th pct.)
-1.8% vs price
◇ = Current price | |Bear |Base | Bull
| Method | Est. Value | vs Price | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $41.62 | 23.3% | High (40%) |
| PE Comparable | $20.46 | -39.4% | Medium (25%) |
| Growth Trajectory DCF | $24.68 | -26.9% | Medium (20%) |
| Graham Number | $7.20 | -78.7% | Medium (30%) |
| EV/EBITDA | $17.75 | -47.4% | Medium (20%) |
| EV/FCF | $23.46 | -30.5% | Medium (20%) |
| Earnings Power Value | $43.71 | 29.5% | Medium (50%) |
Based on 7 out of 8 methods, CMG appears overvalued at the current price of $33.76. The base case fair value of $23.46 implies 30.5% downside.
Bear/base/bull cases represent the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of available method estimates. This is not financial advice. Valuation is inherently uncertain.