Fair value · CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) · updated 2026-09-07 · from 10-K FY2025
Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:42 ET
Are those assumptions reasonable? Use CMG’s filed growth history and the AI chat to decide, then set your own inputs below — the range you build is yours.
What the price implies
price ÷ trailing EPS
per year for 10 years, discounted at 10%
(market cap + net debt) ÷ EBITDA
free cash flow ÷ enterprise value (33.1× EV/FCF)
Prices and market caps: Cboe delayed data, at least 15 minutes delayed. Not real-time. Fundamentals from SEC filings. This price: Cboe · delayed 15 min · as of 03:42 ET.
With preset inputs the methods land at $18 – $26 (presets are filed history and our reference settings, not a recommendation)
Bear, base and bull are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the methods that produced a usable estimate. Weights say how much a method is trusted for this sector; they do not change the range.
| Method | Estimate | vs price | Weight | Why this method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Number Medium weight Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. | $7.37 | -80% | Medium weight | Benjamin Graham’s 1949 rule of thumb: √(22.5 × EPS × book value). It punishes asset-light companies, so it reads low for big tech. |
EV/EBITDA Medium weight Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. | $15 | -60% | Medium weight | Values the whole business at 10× EBITDA and divides by the share count. A mid-cycle industrial multiple; fast growers trade far above it. |
P/E vs sector Medium weight Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. | $21 | -44% | Medium weight | Trailing diluted EPS times the sector median P/E. What the stock would be worth if the market priced it like an average peer. |
EV/FCF Medium weight 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. | $21 | -43% | Medium weight | 20× free cash flow per share, i.e. a 5% cash yield. Reads low for companies the market expects to keep growing. |
Growth-trajectory DCF Medium weight A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. Two-stage DCF using weighted EPS CAGR and industry median terminal rate | $24 | -34% | Medium weight | A two-stage DCF that grows earnings at the company’s own EPS trend, then fades to the industry’s long-run rate. |
Earnings Power Value Medium weight Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. | $28 | -24% | Medium weight | Greenwald’s Earnings Power Value: what current earnings are worth if they never grow. Everything above it is what you pay for growth. |
DCF High weight Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. | $68 | +84% | High weight | Projects free cash flow for the coming years and discounts it back to today. The most complete method, and the most sensitive to the growth and discount-rate assumptions. |
P/B vs sector Medium weight Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. P/B comparable is optional for non-financial companies | No estimate | Medium weight | Sector median price-to-book times book value per share. Works for banks and asset-heavy businesses, says little about software. | |
10-K FY2025 · fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-04 · accession 0001058090-26-000009
Trailing-twelve-month EPS also uses the quarterly 10-Qs through Q2 FY2026 (filed 2026-07-31).
Open this filing on sec.govEvery method that could be solved backwards opens on the assumption today’s price makes, so the top range sits on the price — that is arithmetic, not a view. Change any input and it becomes yours.
We don’t tell you what CMG is worth. Every tab OPENS on what today’s price implies for that method’s key assumption; you decide whether that assumption is reasonable — the growth matrix has CMG’s filed history and the AI chat will reason it through with you — and the range you build is yours. Our presets are filed history and reference settings, never a recommendation.
Discounted cash flow
$67.88per share
84% above the $36.90 price
Your stage-1 FCF growth (14.7%) is above the -20.9% the price implies — your value lands 84% above the price.
Preset inputs — revenue-driven DCF from the latest filing
Implied by today’s price
At $36.90 the market implies a stage-1 FCF growth of -20.9%. (two-stage FCF model solved for stage-1 growth at 3.63% WACC)
The price implies stage-1 FCF growth of -20.9%, outside the range this slider covers. Showing preset inputs.
Implied discount rate (holding growth): 8.7% · the WACC that makes the same model print the price
That is the assumption the market is making — not ours, and not a recommendation. Decide whether it is reasonable: the growth matrix shows what CMG has actually filed, and the AI chat will reason it through with you.
Free cash flow grows at your stage-1 rate, then your stage-2 rate, then a terminal rate; everything is discounted at your WACC.
Yearly free-cash-flow growth for the first stage. Starts below zero so a shrinking-cash-flow case — and the rate today’s price implies — can be set.
How long stage-1 growth lasts.
Slower growth after stage 1, before the terminal phase.
Growth forever after the two stages. Above ~3% is rarely justified.
The return you require. Default is the WACC EvidInvest computed for this company. Higher discount rate, lower value.
| Year | Stage | FCF | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stage 1 | $1,661M | $1,603M |
| 2 | Stage 1 | $1,905M | $1,774M |
| 3 | Stage 1 | $2,185M | $1,963M |
| 4 | Stage 1 | $2,506M | $2,173M |
| 5 | Stage 1 | $2,875M | $2,405M |
| 6 | Stage 2 | $3,197M | $2,581M |
| 7 | Stage 2 | $3,555M | $2,769M |
| 8 | Stage 2 | $3,953M | $2,972M |
| 9 | Stage 2 | $4,395M | $3,189M |
| 10 | Stage 2 | $4,888M | $3,422M |
Inputs from the filing
10-K FY2025 · period ended 2025-12-31 · filed 2026-02-04 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 · sec.gov
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Download the full CMG valuation report (PDF) — free
DCF fair value, Graham number, EPV, key multiples and growth rates in one clean PDF.
0.78
Put/Call (OI)
call-heavy
0.60
Put/Call (volume)
32%
ATM IV ~30d
$40
Call wall
62k OI
$29
Put wall
50k OI
As of previous close (2026-09-04) · OPRA historical data · walls = largest open-interest strikes above/below spot · market-wide positioning